We propose a behavioral decision-making model to investigate what factors, observable as well as unobservable, owner-managers consider regarding futures contract usage. The conceptual model consists of two phases, reflecting the two-stage decision structure of manager's use of futures. In the first phase owner-managers consider whether futures are within the market choice set for the enterprise. In the second phase the owner-manager decides whether or not to initiate a futures position when confronted with a concrete choice situation. In both phases owner-manager's beliefs and perceptions play an important role. The proposed model is tested on a data set of Dutch farmers, based on computer-assisted personal interviews. Because we incorporate latent variables (e.g., perceptions and beliefs) in both phases, we propose an estimation procedure that takes the measurement error of these latent variables explicitly into account. The implications of the behavioral decision-making model for futures contract design are derived.
IntroductionFutures exchanges face the challenge of introducing successful futures contracts and maintaining viable trading of existing contracts. To facilitate this product development approach, previous research has focussed on factors that influence the viability of futures contracts. Two approaches can be distinguished: the commodity characteristics approach and the contract design approach (Black 1986). The commodity characteristics approach defines feasible commodities for futures trading based on an extensive list of required commodity attributes, and, in so doing, focuses on the technical aspects of the underlying commodity. The contract design approach views the contract specification as the critical factor determining the viability of a futures market, and hence focuses on the technical aspects of the contract. Although both approaches provide insight in the conditions that might m ake a futures contract successful, they do not focus on a critical aspect: the decision-making process that leads to the customers' ultimate choice for using futures contracts or not. That is, both approaches provide necessary conditions for having futures trade, but these conditions are not necessarily sufficient. Ultimately, the success of a futures market is determined by the number of customers who decide to trade futures and the number of customers' trades.In order to maximize success (trading volume) and to ensure successful product introductions, futures exchanges face the challenge to develop products that will be