The experience‐based format of probability improves probability estimates: The moderating role of individual differences in numeracy

Abstract

People with low statistical numeracy have difficulties understanding numerical information. For instance, they often misunderstand the probability of experiencing side effects, which could reduce adherence to medical treatments. We investigated whether presenting information about probability using a method based on the direct experience of events influences the accuracy of probability estimates compared to viewing a static numerical description of the same information. Participants completed a numeracy test and were randomly assigned to one of two conditions. In the description‐based probability condition, participants were presented with 24 binomial distributions consisting of a target stimulus “X” and a distractor stimulus “·” in the form of odds (the distribution “7 × 13 ·” is an example of a 35% probability: here the target [distractor] stimulus was present 7[13] times in a 20‐stimulus distribution). In the experience‐based probability condition, participants observed the same information but the stimuli were randomly arranged and displayed sequentially. Participants in both conditions estimated the probability of the target stimulus in each trial. In the experience‐based format participants with low numeracy made more accurate probability estimates in comparison to the description‐based format. In contrast, accuracy in participants with high numeracy was similar in the two formats.

Worry, Risk Perception, and Controllability Predict Intentions Toward COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors

“…This process could be deliberative (e.g., in Atanasov et al, 2020, high-frequency updaters scored higher on the crystallized intelligence measure). But there is also evidence that people could non-intentionally learn complex patterns (Reber, 1993;Sobkow et al, 2018), covariances (Catena et al, 1998), and probabilities (Traczyk et al, 2019).…”

Sensitivity to interventions and the relationship with numeracy

“…Several studies have provided evidence for different psychological mechanisms that may explain more accurate judgments and better decisions made by people with high numeracy. For example, such individuals process probabilities (Millroth & Juslin, 2015;Petrova et al, 2014Petrova et al, , 2019Traczyk & Fulawka, 2016) and values (Schley & Peters, 2014) in a more linear and consistent (Traczyk, Fulawka, et al, 2020) way; have a better memory for outcomes and numerical information (Peters & Bjalkebring, 2015;Shoots-Reinhard et al, 2020;Sobkow, Olszewska, et al, 2020); deliberate more and explore a decision problem to a greater extent (Ashby, 2017;Cokely & Kelley, 2009;Jasper et al, 2017;Traczyk, Lenda, et al, 2018), employing their experience for judgments and choices (Traczyk, Lenda, et al, 2018;Traczyk, Sobkow, et al, 2020); use decision strategies adaptively (Jasper et al, 2013;; tend to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons (Peters, 2012;Peters et al, 2006). Interestingly, statistical numeracy is positively related to other facets of numerical abilities (Sobkow et al, 2019), such as subjective numeracy/numerical confi dence (Fagerlin et al, 2007) and approximate numeracy (Peters & Bjalkebring, 2015), but it does not mean that it is a unitary construct always predicting decision-related variables in the same direction.…”

Zdolności numeryczne jako kluczowe zdolności poznawcze w procesie podejmowania decyzji

“…W szczególności format doświadczeniowy może przynieść wymierne korzyści dla osób z niskim poziomem zdolności numerycznych. Na poparcie tej hipotezy Traczyk i współpracownicy (Traczyk, Sobkow, Matukiewicz, Petrova, & Garcia-Retamero, 2019) wykazali w badaniu eksperymentalnym, że w przypadku osób o wysokim poziomie zdolności numerycznych format prezentacji informacji o prawdopodobieństwie (opisowy vs doświadczeniowy) nie miał znaczenia dla oszacowania prawdopodobieństwa ani dla średniego odchylenia od prawidłowej odpowiedzi. Jednakże zastosowanie formatu doświadczeniowego pomogło osobom o niskim poziomie zdolności numerycznych w dokonywaniu lepszych oszacowań, które były zoperacjonalizowane jako większa wrażliwość na zmiany prawdopodobieństwa oraz mniejsze średnie odchylenie od prawidłowej odpowiedzi.…”