The Evolution of African Swine Fever in China: A Global Threat?

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most critical diseases in the pig industry. In Asia, 15 countries have already reported an outbreak as of November 22, 2021. In 2021, China reported the genotype II lower virulent ASF virus (ASFV) and the emergence of genotype I ASFV. ASF is generally known as a contagious and lethal disease, but if chronic infection spreads, then disease control would be more difficult. In the current study, we highlighted the possibility of lower virulent virus distribution throughout China and the subsequent general risk of the virus being released from the country. The kernel density estimation showed that the two highest kernel density areas of ASF notification were located in Northeast and Midwest China. Four of the five provinces where lower virulent ASFV was isolated overlapped with areas of relatively high ASF notification density. In terms of the risk of ASFV spreading from China, eight of the 10 largest airports and three of the 10 largest seaports are located in areas of relatively high ASF notification density. There were flight flow from China to 67 countries and ship flow to 81 countries. Asia had the highest flight flow, followed by Europe, North America, Africa, and Oceania. The highest number of ship flows was also concentrated in Asia, but about 10% of ships head to Africa and South America. Chinese overseas residents were distributed in each continent in proportion to these results. Here, we highlight the potential risk of ASFV spread from China to the world.

Efficient detection of African Swine Fever Virus using minimal equipment through a LAMP PCR method

“…Following eradication in the 1990s, ASFV was reintroduced into the Eurasian continent in 2007 through Georgia and, from there, ASFV has spread both east and west-ward (Rowlands et al, 2008;Costard et al, 2013). This led to a series of outbreaks during the early 2010s, culminating in the introduction of the virus in large pork-producing countries, such as China and Germany (Sauter-Louis et al, 2021b;Ito et al, 2022). Notably, in 2021, ASFV was detected in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, raising alarms about the reintroduction of the disease into the Americas (Gonzales et al, 2021;Stepien and Cole, 2021;Schambow et al, 2022).…”

Transboundary and emerging diseases and globalization. Have we scored an own goal?

“…It is tempting to speculate that the spread of these three infectious diseases is not simply coincidence, but that increasing connectivity in this region-as exemplified by the trade in livestock and livestock products-and the process of globalization lies behind these events. The movement of live pigs, vehicles, and personnel are key factors in the spread of ASF virus in China (Cheng & Ward, 2022;Gao et al, 2021), and preliminary data analysis suggests that global connectivity increases the risk of its transboundary spread (Ito et al, 2022). However, in most cases defining the sources and mechanisms of transboundary spread remains elusive (Indi Dharmayanti et al, 2021).…”

Multiplex CRISPR strategy targeting viral genome for agriculture and clinical use

“…The basic reproductive number (R0) has been estimated to be as high as 18.0 for transmission amongst domestic pigs 3 . Over the last 4 years, the outbreak has been reported in 35 countries worldwide, posing a global threat to the swine industry 4, 5 . It is estimated that in 2019 alone, around 50 million pigs died as a consequence of the ASF outbreak with the total economic loss approaching US$111.2 billion 3 .…”