The effects of climatic change and C02 fertilisation on agriculture in Québec

Maayar, Mustapha El; Singh, Bhawan; André, P.; Bryant, Christopher; Thouez, Jean-Pierre

doi:10.1016/s0168-1923(96)02404-5

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The changes in yields obtained in this study differ somewhat from those of previous studies conducted in Québec on the impacts of climate changes on agriculture (Singh & Stewart 1991, B. Singh et al 1996, 1998, El Maayar et al 1997. The research of Singh & Stewart (1991) obtained similar results for soybean, but predicted increases in maize and potato yields, and a decrease in wheat yields.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 62%

“…They show the greater importance of the direct CO 2 fertilization effect for C3 species such as wheat and soybean, where it is responsible for most of the anticipated increase in future yields. The direct CO 2 effect has less of an impact on a C4 crop yields, such as maize, because these crops are already near their maximum photosynthesis rate at current CO 2 levels (Kimball et al 1993).The changes in yields obtained in this study differ somewhat from those of previous studies conducted in Québec on the impacts of climate changes on agriculture (Singh & Stewart 1991, B. Singh et al 1996, 1998, El Maayar et al 1997. The research of Singh & Stewart (1991) obtained similar results for soybean, but predicted increases in maize and potato yields, and a decrease in wheat yields.…”

contrasting

confidence: 63%

“…The results of B. Singh et al (1996, 1998) predicting increases in maize and potato and decreases in wheat and soybean yields, are also somewhat different from those of this study. The study of El Maayar et al (1997), the only previous research that has considered the CO 2 fertilization effect in the Québec region, provided similar results only for wheat and soybean, and only in some agricultural regions. These previous studies adopted a similar methodological approach, except that they used a different crop model, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO 1978) model, and earlier versions of different A-OGCMs: the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS; Singh & Stewart 1991) and the CCCma (B. Singh et al 1996, 1998, El Maayar et al 1997) climate scenarios.…”

mentioning

confidence: 55%

“…This research differs from the previous studies of a similar nature (Singh & Stewart 1991, B. Singh et al 1996, 1998, El Maayar et al 1997 in the choice of the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (A-OGCMs) and crop models used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…The present study has evolved from our work in studies for several institutions (Environment Canada, Royal Canadian Geographical Society and Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Network) between 1987 and the present (Singh & Stewart 1991, Bryant et al 1995, Singh et al 1996, El Maayar et al 1997, B. Singh et al 1998. These studies examined (and continue to examine) climate-related vulnerabilities, impacts, and adaptations in the agricultural sector.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate change and CO2 increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada

Brassard¹,

Singh²

2007

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:We assessed the effect of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, as well as the direct fertilization effect of CO 2 , on crop yields in Québec, Canada. Our methodology coupled the transient diagnostics of 2 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (CGCM1 and HadCM3) to the DSSAT 3.5 crop simulation system to simulate current and future (2040-2069) crop yields for spring wheat, maize, soybean and potato grown in 8 agricultural regions of Québec. For the future (2040-2069), we predict significant yield increases for soybean, lesser increases for wheat, no significant change for maize, and yield decreases for potato. These yields, especially for soybean, are further increased when incorporating the CO 2 fertilization effect, but vary according to the crop, climate scenario and agricultural region. Similar trends have been found in comparable agricultural regions in the Northeastern USA and in Southern Finland. These results are useful for designing appropriate crop and farm management adaptation strategies in response to future climate change.KEY WORDS: Climate change · CO 2 increase · Canada · Crop yields Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 34: [105][106][107][108][109][110][111][112][113][114][115][116][117] 2007 GCMs (general circulation models) CGCM1 and HadCM3, as well as data from the crop model DSSAT 3.5 (Brassard 2003). METHODS AND DATAThis study uses the coupled climate scenario-crop model approach in which present and future climate conditions, generated by the selected climate models, following different CO 2 and other GHG emission scenarios, are integrated as inputs into the different crop models so as to simulate crop growth, development and production. All model variables, other than weather (e.g. soil, cultivar and management), are held constant between present and future crop yield simulations. Present and future crop yields are then compared to evaluate the impacts of GHG-induced climate change on agriculture. The A-OGCM climate models used in this study are the coupled CGCM1 of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) and the HadCM3 of the British Hadley Centre. The CGCM1 model is forced by the IS92a emission scenario, whilst the HadCM3 model is forced by both the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios (Houghton et al. 2001). The selection of the A-OGCMs was based on their relevance to Canadian conditions and their ability to provide daily climate diagnostics at a relatively fine scale. The crop models used were those of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) version 3.5, namely CERES, CROPGRO and SUBSTOR, suitable for use under Canadian conditions (Mahdian & Gallichand 1997).This study was conducted in 8 of the 13 agricultural regions of the province of Québec, Canada (Fig. 1). These regions are those of the Régie des Assurances Agricoles du Québec (RAAQ 2001a). The choice of study region was based on the importance of the cultivated acreages and the desire to have as complete a representat...

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 62%

contrasting

confidence: 63%

mentioning

confidence: 55%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate change and CO2 increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada

Brassard¹,

Singh²

2007

Clim. Res.

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CERES‐Maize model‐based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China

Lin

2014

J Sci Food Agric

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BACKGROUND: Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model.

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Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Climate Change on Wheat Production in the Mediterranean Region

Kapur

Aydin

Yano

et al. 2018

Climate Change Impacts on Basin Agro-Ecosystems

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The effects of climatic change and C02 fertilisation on agriculture in Québec

Cited by 22 publications

References 35 publications

Effects of climate change and CO2 increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada

Effects of climate change and CO2 increase on potential agricultural production in Southern Québec, Canada

CERES‐Maize model‐based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China

Interactive Effects of Elevated CO2 and Climate Change on Wheat Production in the Mediterranean Region

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