The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China

Abstract

stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemic have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved, as well. However, the daily reported cases remaining at a high level make the epidemic trend prediction difficult. Methods: Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemic's process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including the cumulative number of reported, deceased, quarantined and suspected cases.Results: Results show that the trend of the epidemic mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states, and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemic's peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while newly reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in the suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. Conclusions: The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.

Impact of Hospital Bed Shortages on the Containment of COVID-19 in Wuhan

“…By using the next generation matrix method [ 27 ], the basic reproduction number could be calculated, then considering the time varying parameters, and that the ratio of the susceptible population to the total population is approximately 1, the effective reproduction number can be approximately defined [ 26 ] as …”

“…Because the medical levels, public awareness as well as the prevention and control measures were improved and strengthened gradually after 23 January, here we assumed that the contact rate , the quarantine rate , the diagnosis rates , the recovery rate , and disease-induced death rate of hospitalized individuals are time-dependent functions [ 26 ]. The contact rate is assumed to be a constant before 23 January and a decreasing function with respect to time t after 23 January due to the lockdown strategies and raising of public awareness, which takes the following form: where is the contact rate without control measures or awareness of the disease, ( ) is the minimum contact rate with the unprecedented intervention measures and self-isolation, and is the corresponding decreasing rate of the contact rate.…”

“…Because the medical levels, public awareness as well as the prevention and control measures were improved and strengthened gradually after 23 January, here we assumed that the contact rate c(t), the quarantine rate q(t), the diagnosis rates δ I (t), δ q (t), the recovery rate γ H (t), and disease-induced death rate α H (t) of hospitalized individuals are time-dependent functions [26]. The contact rate c(t) is assumed to be a constant before 23 January and a decreasing function with respect to time t after 23 January due to the lockdown strategies and raising of public awareness, which takes the following form:…”

Modeling and analysis of COVID-19 epidemics with treatment in fractional derivatives using real data from Pakistan

“…Finally, the suggested differential and integral operators were applied to the model. Tang et al [ 4 ] studied the effectiveness of quarantine and isolation that determined the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in the final phase of the current outbreak in China. In their study, they have seen that the uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemic is still uncertain, and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China that helped the country to tackle with COVID-19 outbreak during its peak time.…”

Modeling and Analyzing the Propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan Based On Game Theory: Quarantine or Not?

“…Muhammad Altaf Khan et al 14 formulated a model for the dynamics of COVID-19 with quarantine and isolation, in which isolation is one of the states (Q). A novel model in line with the process of current epidemic and control measures was proposed in 15 , in which quarantined susceptible (Sq) and quarantined suspected individuals (B) are considered, the quarantined suspected compartment consists of exposed infectious individuals resulting from contact tracing and individuals with common fever needing clinical medication. Shilei Zhao et al 16 developed a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19.…”