The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty

Bos, M. S.; Williams, Simon; Araújo, I.B.; Bastos, L.

doi:10.1093/gji/ggt481

Cited by 102 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Although it has been widely accepted that an autoregressive process of the order 1 is suitable for this purpose (e.g., ref. 9), recent studies demonstrate that the use of long-memory processes provides a physically more consistent description of the noise (24,28,(47)(48)(49)(50). Ref.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Dangendorf

Marcos

Wöppelmann

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

310

237

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The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm·y −1 . Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm·y −1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm·y −1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Dangendorf

Marcos

Wöppelmann

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

310

237

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“…If not taken into account, the standard errors of the rates may be underestimated [22,23]. Hence, we did a preliminary fit of the model in Equation (1) and investigated the sample autocorrelation function (ACF) and the sample partial autocorrelation function (PACF) of the residuals.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Norwegian Tide Gaugesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We note that other stochastic models can be used to take into account time-correlated noise in tide-gauge records. [22] are critical of only using the AR1-model. They find that the choice of model depends on the sampling rate (monthly/annual data), the length of the record, and the location.…”

Section: Analysis Of the Norwegian Tide Gaugesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

Breili

Simpson

Nilsen

2017

JMSE

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Norway's national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB) corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

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“…Becker et al [20], Bos et al [21], Beenstock et al [22], and Dangendorf et al [23] suggested that long-term variability in local and global mean sea level has resulted in previous studies underestimating uncertainties. Using refined uncertainty estimates, Becker et al and Dangendorf et al estimated a larger uncertainty, due to unforced and naturally forced variability, and thus argued the minimum long-term anthropogenic GMSL trend since 1900 is 1 and 0.6 mm year −1 , respectively (both at the 99 % confidence level).…”

Section: Historical Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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The effect of temporal correlated noise on the sea level rate and acceleration uncertainty

Cited by 102 publications

References 35 publications

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

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