The economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran: ‎a CGE model analysis

Vatankhah, Tayebeh; Moosavi, Seyed Nematollah; Tabatabaei, Sharareh Majdzadeh

doi:10.1080/15567036.2019.1604903

Cited by 9 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Iran's rising food demand is pushing against the limits of its own production capacity, which faces tight constraints from geography and climate (USDA, 2017). 2 erefore, improving the climate will increase the country's economic potential and reduce costs, while adverse climate conditions will worsen the country's economic situation and, consequently, increase costs (Vatankhah et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather or not? The role of international sanctions and climate on food prices in Iran

Zamanialaei

Brown

McCarty

et al. 2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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IntroductionThe scarcity of resources have affected food production, which has challenged the ability of Iran to provide adequate food for the population. Iterative and mounting sanctions on Iran by the international community have seriously eroded Iran's access to agricultural technology and resources to support a growing population. Limited moisture availability also affects Iran's agricultural production. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of inflation, international sanctions, weather disturbances, and domestic crop production on the price of rice, wheat and lentils from 2010 to 2021 in Iran.MethodData were obtained from the statistical yearbooks of the Ministry of Agriculture in Iran, Statistical Center of Iran, and the Central Bank of Iran. We analyzed econometric measures of food prices, including CPI, food inflation, subsidy reform plan and sanctions to estimate economic relationships. After deflating the food prices through CPI and detrending the time series to resolve the non-linear issue, we used monthly Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) precipitation data to analyze the influence of weather disturbances on food prices.Results and discussionThe price of goods not only provides an important indicator of the balance between agricultural production and market demand, but also has strong impacts on food affordability and food security. This novel study used a combination of economic and climate factors to analyze the food prices in Iran. Our statistical modeling framework found that the monthly precipitation on domestic food prices, and ultimately food access, in the country is much less important than the international sanctions, lowering Iran's productive capability and negatively impacting its food security.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather or not? The role of international sanctions and climate on food prices in Iran

Zamanialaei

Brown

McCarty

et al. 2023

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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show abstract

“…They found that by 2050, GDP will be 10% lower than the no-climate-change baseline, with climate change impacts disproportionately affecting the poor. Another study conducted by Vatankhah et al (2020), find that improving the climate will increase the country’s economic potential and reduce costs, while adverse climate conditions will worsen the country’s economic situation and, consequently, increase costs. Economic studies of climate change have shown that although global warming may improve global productivity in the short term, it will have a detrimental influence on production in the long run (Vista, 2014; Reidsma et al , 2009).…”

Section: Previous Study That Used the Computable General Equilibrium ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Hossain

Cui

Delin

et al. 2023

IJCCSM

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Purpose Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios. Design/methodology/approach Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline. Findings The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Practical implications As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government. Originality/value The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.

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“…In India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka climate change had a substantial impact on the agriculture industry between 1990 and 2014 period using the ARDL approach [51]. In Iran, using the ARDL technique within the SAM model framework data from 1991 to 2014, adverse climate change conditions had a negative impact on agricultural growth [52]. Based on data from 1961 to 2019 using ARDL and panel estimators, rising temperatures were observed to have a negative long-term relationship with the agricultural growth in 32 Sub-Saharan African nations [53].…”

Section: Agricultural Economic Growth and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Economic Growth in South Africa: ARDL Approach

Tagwi

2022

Sustainability

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One of the most affected economies by climate change is the agricultural sector. Climate change measured by temperature and precipitation has an impact on agricultural output, which in turn affects the economy of the sector. It is anticipated that using renewable energy will lower carbon emissions that are directly related to climate change. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), renewable energy usage, and climate change on South Africa’s agricultural sector from 1972 to 2021. The nexus was estimated using an Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test econometric technique. In the short run, findings indicated that climate change reduces agricultural economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions increase as agricultural economic growth increases. The use of renewable energy was insignificant in the short and long run. Carbon dioxide emissions granger causes temperature and renewable energy unilateral. An ARDL analysis was performed to evaluate the short and long-term relationship between agricultural economic growth, climate change, carbon dioxide emissions and renew able energy usage. The study adds new knowledge on the effects of climate change and carbon emissions on the agricultural economy alongside the use of renewable energy which can be used to inform economic policy on climate change and the energy nexus in the agricultural sector. Study findings point to the prioritization of biomass commercialization, rural and commercial farming sector bioenergy regulations and socioeconomic imperatives research is crucial in order to promote inclusive participation in the production of renewable energy.

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The economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Iran: ‎a CGE model analysis

Cited by 9 publications

References 25 publications

Weather or not? The role of international sanctions and climate on food prices in Iran

Weather or not? The role of international sanctions and climate on food prices in Iran

The economic influence of climate change on Bangladesh agriculture: application of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

The Impacts of Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Economic Growth in South Africa: ARDL Approach

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