The economic crisis of 2020: Reasons, policies to deal with and further development of the Russian economy

Abstract

At the beginning of 2020, the world community has faced the problem of the coronavirus, which, in the context of significant globalization of the world economy, quickly spread from China around the world, leading to a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. For Russia, the consequences of the pandemic, in addition to the decrease in export demand and strict quarantine measures, are compounded by a sharp drop in oil prices in the face of difficult negotiations with OPEC + and the need to limit oil production. All this necessitates active anti-crisis policy, which should include not only the support of the affected economic agents, but the intensification of different structural reforms aimed at accelerating the potential (structural) economic growth rates. At the same time, the possibilities of a significant fiscal stimulus are narrow due to the contraction of government revenues, limited borrowing opportunities and the rapid depletion of the National Welfare Fund in the event of a prolonged coronavirus pandemic.

Post-Pandemic Recovery: The Russian Economy and the Transition to Sustainable Social and Economic Development

“…The scale of the upheavals in the world and Russian economies allows us to consider them as a global cataclysm comparable to a military crisis [1,2]. Quarantine measures that were used by most countries of the world [3], including Russia, made it possible to reduce mortality from a pandemic and distribute the load on the healthcare system in time, but this has to be paid for by a serious economic recession [4]. In Russia, according to the results of 2020, the decline in GDP may exceed 5%, the number of poor can increase from 18 million to 20-21 million people.…”

Peculiarities of ARDL modeling in sociological time series analysis (the case of economic news in the dynamics of CSI in 2010–2017)

“…Сегодня можно говорить о существовании признаков экономической нестабильности в энергетической, финансовой, эпидемиологической сферах [1], определяющей дальнейшие реакции политических и финансовых институтов [2]. Обычно одним из резуль татов проявления нестабильности являются нарастающая и продолжительная тревожность людей, более интенсивный поиск ими решений возникающих проблем [3].…”

How to Ensure Fiscal Sustainability in Russia

“…Considering also the government guarantees, postponement of repayment of the government loans issued earlier and the shortfall in revenues due to loosening the tax rules, it can be said that deterioration of the medium-term federal budget equilibrium began to loom large, while limiting substantially the fiscal policy as a tool to stimulate economic growth. Thus, Polbin et al [15] seriously doubt the possibility to adopt any significant countercyclical fiscal policy in Russia due to a decline in government revenues, limited capabilities for borrowing, and rapid depletion of National Wellbeing Fund resources, while bypassing the current fiscal rule.…”