The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale

Abstract

Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.

Predictors of Drinking Water Boiling and Bottled Water Consumption in Rural China: A Hierarchical Modeling Approach

“…In 2010, residential fuel combustion for cooking, boiling, and heating in China was estimated to contribute to 32% of the country's total outdoor air pollution burden; 53 and as much as 80% of these emissions were attributed to the incomplete combustion of wood and agricultural refuse in rural households. 54 An estimated 1.6 million premature deaths per year are now attributed to air pollution exposure in China.…”

Exploration of PM<sub>2.5</sub> sources on the regional scale in the Pearl River Delta based on ME-2 modeling

“…Due to its smaller size, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) can carry toxic chemicals into human lungs and bronchi, causing respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases that can harm human health (Sarnat et al, 2008;Burnett et al, 2014). In particular, long-term exposure to high concentrations of fine particulate matter can also lead to premature death (Lelieveld et al, 2015). The Chinese government has attached great importance to improving air quality and issued the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in September 2013, clearly requiring the concentration levels of fine particulate matter in a few key regions, including the Pearl River Delta (PRD), to drop by 2017 from 15 % to 25 % of their values in 2012.…”

Differential DNA methylation and PM2.5 species in a 450K epigenome-wide association study

“…It is estimated that PM 2.5 leads to 3.15 million premature deaths per year on a global scale. 1 Nationwide and multiple-community studies report that exposure to PM 2.5 is linked with an increased risk of hospital admissions and mortality in the US, and that certain PM 2.5 species may be more toxic than others. [2][3][4][5] DNA methylation is an epigenetic process in which a methyl group is added to deoxycytosine bases to form deoxymethylcytosine.…”