The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review

Liu, Yuan; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Huang, Chengfang; Chen, Xi; Wang, Fang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135355

Cited by 45 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The present studies on extreme temperature changes in mainland China show that although the most extreme high temperatures were increasing and extreme low temperatures were decreasing, there were certain differences between regions and magnitudes. It has been reported that days of extreme temperatures at some observatories in mainland China do not conform to a normal distribution (Qian et al 2019;Shen et al 2017;Zhang et al 2020;Xing et al 2020). Therefore, this difference may be related to the methods and data.…”

Section: Frost Days Cold Days and Warm Daysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the past half-century, the yield of most major crops in the world has increased signi cantly, mainly due to irrigation, chemical input and the extensive use of modern crop varieties (Lobell et al 2012). However, an increasing number of studies have shown that there are two signi cant differences between the positive and negative effects of climate warming on crop growth and yield (Das et al 2020;Zhao et al 2017;Liu et al 2020;Liu et al 2021;, and the results depend on the study areas, crops and methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature In Mainland China Under Climate Change

Yan

Zhao

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Grain yield may be affected in the future by climate change. Some studies have suggested that variations in the seasonal cycle of temperature and season onset could affect the efficiency in the use of radiation by plants, which would then affect yield. However, the study of the temporal variation in extreme climatic variables is not sufficient in China. Therefore, this article evaluates the distribution of extreme temperature seasonality trends in mainland China, describes the trends in the seasonal cycle, and detects changes in extreme temperature characterized by the number of hot days (HD), and frost days (FD) and the frequency of warm days (Tx90p), cold days (Tx10p), warm nights (Tn90p) and cold nights (Tn10p). All data are from the EAR5 reanalysis for the 1979-2020 periods.The results show a statistically significant positive trend in the annual average amplitudes (A0) of extreme temperatures. The change in Txmax was the smallest, but it also accounted for 84.5% of the total area. The annual amplitude (A1) and phase (F1) experienced less variation than A0 for extreme temperatures in mainland China. A1 of the maximum temperature decreased significantly on the Tibetan Plateau and increased significantly in the Tianshan Mountains and Jungar Basin (mainly Taxman). F1 of the maximum temperature exhibit a negative trend in approximately 30% of mainland China, and the trend appeared in some regions except in the Northeast and Southwest. Although A1 of the minimum temperature was not as large as that of the maximum temperature, its distribution was very characteristic and it was almost bounded by the 400 mm isohyet, increasing in the Northwest and decreasing in the Southeast. In terms of the number of days, there was an increase in HD, Tx90p, and Tn90p, as well as a decrease in FD, Tx10p, and Tn10p. This number of days also indicates that temperature has increased over mainland China in the past 42 years.

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Section: Frost Days Cold Days and Warm Daysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature In Mainland China Under Climate Change

Yan

Zhao

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…With evidence from numerous studies confirming the impact of climate change on crop yields (Challinor et al, 2014;Knox et al, 2012), a growing number of researchers have focused on the resulting economic impacts (Burke et al, 2015;Costinot et al, 2016;Robinson et al, 2015;Takakura et al, 2019). The negative effects of climate change on Chinese agriculture have been confirmed, and future increases are expected (Liu et al, 2020). Agricultural production accounts for a large proportion of the national economy in China, so the resulting economic consequences cannot be ignored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production: The Regional and Sectoral Economic Consequences in China

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2020

Earth's Future

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Climate is an essential element in agricultural production, and climate change inevitably have an impact on agriculture. Assessing the economic consequences of climate change requires comprehensive assessments of the impact chain from climate to crops and the economy. In our previous study, we derived a dose-response function to estimate the response of crop yields to climate variables through a systematic review. In this paper, a dynamic multiregional input-output model is established to assess the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production on China's regional and sectoral levels. The results show that (1) the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) which implies the resulting economic cascade effect (ECE) that amounts to 17.8% of China's GDP. At the end of 21st century, the ECE is −0.1% to 13.6% of GDP (negative values indicate economic gains) without considering CO 2 fertilization effect, of which the ECE in the most pessimistic pathway are equivalent to the total agricultural output in China today. (2) Regional-level results show an uneven distribution of economic impact in China, which is related to the regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences 2.8 to 8.5 times more ECE caused by climate change than the most developed region. (3) Sector-level results show that agriculture is still the main affected sector, but in developed regions, manufacturing and services also bear part of the ECE. Plain Language Summary Evidence from numerous studies has confirmed the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper assesses the economic consequences of changes in agricultural production under climate change in China. We find that the direct economic damage is equivalent to 1% of gross domestic product which implies the resulting economic cascade effect that amounts to 17.8% of total gross domestic product. The most pessimistic estimate of the economic impacts in the 2090s is equivalent to China's total agricultural output today without considering CO 2 fertilization effect of climate change. The economic impacts suffered by different regions of China are related to regional economic development. The least developed region in China experiences more economic damage from climate change than the most developed region. In addition to the agricultural sector, manufacturing and services are expected to experience part of the impacts, especially in developed regions. This paper hopes to provide data support for a comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts in different regions of China by assessing the economic consequences.

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“…Climate change is confirmed to being occurring worldwide, with agriculture facing great challenges due to the increase in temperature, decrease in solar radiation, and uncertainty related to precipitation (Trenberth, 2011; IPCC, 2018; Liu et al ., 2020). Maize contains approximately 72% starch, 10% protein, and 4% fat and has an energy density of 365 Kcal 100 −1 g −1 (Ranum et al ., 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One degree of warming or a 1 mm decrease in precipitation would result in a 150.3 or a 1.9 kg loss in maize yields per ha (Chen et al ., 2017). A declining trend of maize yields caused by climate change has been reported in the United States (Burchfield et al ., 2019), China (Liu et al ., 2020), Brazil (Lana et al ., 2016; Martins et al ., 2019), Mexico (Ureta et al ., 2020), Iran (Rahimi‐Moghaddam et al ., 2018), Malawi (Warnatzsch and Reay, 2020), and Ethiopia (Araya et al ., 2015). Generally, climate change affects crop yield by changing growth duration, field management practices, evapotranspiration and grain filling processes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate suitability for summer maize on the North China Plain under current and future climate scenarios

Tang

Liu

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Maize production on the North China Plain (NCP) is critical to food security in China; however, currently, it is affected by climate change. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of the climate suitability for maize on the NCP in the present and future may help sustainably use climate-related resources to ensure food security in China. In this study, 30 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and a statistical downscaling model (NWAI-WG) were used to project meteorological data in 2021-2100 under representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 for 23 national climatic stations on the NCP. Based on agricultural climate suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method, the suitability of temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation on summer maize were analysed. The results showed that temperature suitability is decreasing for 2021-2100, especially during the stages from jointing to maturity; temperature suitability is the lowest in the southwest and increases to the northeast under both scenarios. Compared to 1996-2015, the precipitation suitability in 2021-2100 increases greatly under both scenarios, especially in the central part under RCP4.5 and in the north part under RCP8.5. Solar radiation suitability shows a decreasing trend for 1996-2015, however, an increasing trend for 2021-2100 under both scenarios. At spatial scale, the solar suitability increases from southwest to northeast. The integrated climate suitability under RCP4.5 in 2021-2100 is averaged approximately 0.8 and varies slightly, indicating climate change may do small effect on maize growth, though the high values shifting from the central part in 2021-2040 to the northern part in 2081-2100; however, under RCP8.5, the integrated climate suitability shows a downward trend, indicating that climate change will make many regions less suitable for maize growth. These results could provide basic information for agriculture to adapt to climate change and ensure food security for China.

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The central trend in crop yields under climate change in China: A systematic review

Cited by 45 publications

References 29 publications

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature In Mainland China Under Climate Change

Assessment of Seasonal Variability of Extreme Temperature In Mainland China Under Climate Change

Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production: The Regional and Sectoral Economic Consequences in China

Climate suitability for summer maize on the North China Plain under current and future climate scenarios

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