The Burden of Yellow Fever on Migrating Humans through The Darién Gap, Adjacent Communities, and Primates’ Biodiversity

Abstract

Given the ongoing migratory crisis in Latin America, we aimed to assess the relationship between human mobility and the spread of yellow fever (YF) in the Darién Gap forest. We investigated how the time taken to cross the forest affects the burden of a potential YF outbreak on people migrating through the forest, the burden on adjacent communities, and the risk to primate biodiversity. Using an SEIR-SEI deterministic compartmental model for humans, monkeys, and vectors, and numerical simulations, we considered the time taken to cross the forest as a measure of exposure. If an outbreak occurs, over 23,000 human cases are projected, with approximately 19,000 infected individuals leaving the forest. Monkeys would also be significantly affected, with the number of human deaths being determined by monkey-related parameters. The pace of crossing the forest is strongly related to the number of exposed and active cases leaving the forest. Panamanian communities must receive support to prepare themselves to protect residents and thousands of people arriving in their territory daily. It would also impact the non-human primate community within the forest, preventing a YF outbreak. This reinforces the importance of a planetary health perspective which reinforces the mutual benefits and connections between efforts to protect human health and conserve biodiversity.