The burden of AIDS: a time series analysis of thirty-five years of the epidemic in Brazil

Traebert, Jefferson; Traebert, Eliane; Schuelter‐Trevisol, Fabiana; Escalante, Juan José Cortez; Schneider, Ione Jayce Ceola

doi:10.1080/09540121.2018.1456642

Cited by 9 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Worsening this scenario, an epidemic of AIDS is underway in Brazil; >800,000 new cases have been diagnosed in recent decades ( 6 ). Therefore, efforts are necessary to understand the epidemiology of DH/AIDS co-infection in the areas to which these diseases are endemic.…”

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confidence: 99%

Disseminated Histoplasmosis in Persons with HIV/AIDS, Southern Brazil, 2010–2019

Basso¹,

Poester²,

Benelli³

et al. 2022

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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confidence: 99%

Disseminated Histoplasmosis in Persons with HIV/AIDS, Southern Brazil, 2010–2019

Basso¹,

Poester²,

Benelli³

et al. 2022

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…Brazil is the largest country in Latin America, with a population of >200 million. It is currently struggling with an HIV epidemic, with almost 1 000 000 cases [7]. Nevertheless, the frequency of disseminated histoplasmosis has not been well characterized in Brazil.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Histoplasmosis, An Underdiagnosed Disease Affecting People Living With HIV/AIDS in Brazil: Results of a Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study Using Both Classical Mycology Tests and Histoplasma Urine Antigen Detection

Falci

Monteiro

Caurio

et al. 2019

Open Forum Infectious Diseases

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Background Histoplasmosis is highly endemic in the American continent. This condition is associated with a high mortality, particularly in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Diagnosis of histoplasmosis is usually late in South America, as Histoplasma antigen detection is rarely available. Here we determined the prevalence, risk factors, and outcome of histoplasmosis in PLWHA in Brazilian hospitals. Methods This was a prospective cohort study (2016–2018) involving 14 tertiary medical centers in Brazil. We included hospitalized PLWHA presenting with fever and additional clinical findings. Patients were investigated at each participant center with classical mycology methods. Also, Histoplasma antigen detection was performed in urine samples (IMMY). Probable/proven histoplasmosis was defined according to European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer/Invasive Fungal Infections Cooperative Group/National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group criteria. Results From 616 eligible patients, 570 were included. Histoplasmosis was identified in 21.6% (123/570) of patients. Urine antigen testing increased the diagnostic yield in 53.8%, in comparison with standard mycology methods. Variables independently associated with histoplasmosis were CD4+ count <50 cells/mm 3 , use of an antiretroviral (protective effect), and sample collection in the Northeast region of Brazil. Dyspnea at presentation was independently associated with death. Histoplasmosis was more frequent than tuberculosis in patients with low CD4+ counts. Overall 30-day mortality was 22.1%, decreasing to 14.3% in patients with antigen-based diagnosis. Conclusions Histoplasmosis is a very frequent condition affecting PLWHA in Brazil, particularly when CD4+ counts are lower than 50 cells/mm 3 . Antigen detection may detect earlier disease, with a probable impact on outcomes. Access to this diagnostic tool is needed to improve clinical management of PLWHA in endemic countries.

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“…Literature [16] uses the ARIMA model to forecast the GDP of a city, the relative error of the model results is small, and the model fits well. Literature [17] models the incidence of AIDS in a city and establishes a time series analysis model. This empirical analysis process has certain guiding significance for epidemic control.…”

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confidence: 99%

Back-Propagation Neural Network and ARIMA Algorithm for GDP Trend Analysis

Hua

2022

Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing

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GDP (gross domestic product) is a key indicator for assessing a country’s or region’s macroeconomic situation, as well as a foundation for the government to develop economic development strategies and macroeconomic policies. Currently, the majority of methods for forecasting GDP are linear methods, which only take into account the linear factors that affect GDP. GDP (gross domestic product) is widely regarded as the most accurate indicator of a country’s economic health. GDP not only reflects a country’s economic development over time but can also reflect its national strength and wealth. As a result, the GDP trend forecast partially reflects China’s transformation and future development. The time series ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model and the BPNN (BP neural network) model are combined in this article to create the ARIMA-BPNN fusion prediction model. The predicted values of the two models were then weighted averaged to obtain the predicted values of the linear part of the improved fusion model. To get the predicted values of the improved fusion model, we weighted average the residual parts of the two models, predict the nonlinear residual with BPNN, and add the predicted values of the two parts. It is applied to the actual GDP forecast in H province from 2019 to 2022, and the actual forecast verifies the effectiveness of the fusion forecast model in the actual forecast.

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The burden of AIDS: a time series analysis of thirty-five years of the epidemic in Brazil

Cited by 9 publications

References 20 publications

Disseminated Histoplasmosis in Persons with HIV/AIDS, Southern Brazil, 2010–2019

Disseminated Histoplasmosis in Persons with HIV/AIDS, Southern Brazil, 2010–2019

Histoplasmosis, An Underdiagnosed Disease Affecting People Living With HIV/AIDS in Brazil: Results of a Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study Using Both Classical Mycology Tests and Histoplasma Urine Antigen Detection

Back-Propagation Neural Network and ARIMA Algorithm for GDP Trend Analysis

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