The basic reproduction number, R0, in structured populations

Neal, Peter; Theparod, Thitiya

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2019.108224

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…According to the official announcement ( [16,[34][35][36][37]), the following variable values are determined. In the initial period of the epidemic, residents can move freely in the city, so we set NN � 2.7 for this period.…”

Section: Simulation Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Analysis of COVID‐19 Pandemic Responses Based on an Improved SEIR‐SD Model

Liu

Deng

et al. 2022

Complexity

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In late 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic began to spread over the world, causing millions of deaths. In the first few months of the pandemic, several countries (such as China) prevented the spread of the pandemic successfully. By contrast, the pandemic in many other countries was not controlled well. For example, India encountered a second serious outbreak of COVID-19 from April 2021 due to the poor resistance measures implemented by the government. To figure out the effective countermeasures to the pandemic, this research proposes a COVID-19 pandemic and its response system, which consists of the infection subsystem, the quarantine subsystem, and the medical subsystem. On this basis, an improved SEIR-SD model is established which is utilized to analyze the response measures to the pandemic quantitatively. This model successfully simulates the actual epidemic scenarios in Wuhan, which verifies its effectiveness. Afterward, the impact of hospital administration rate, quarantine rate, average contact number, and contact infection rate on the cumulative number of infections and deaths are analyzed by simulation. The results show that both the medical and administrative efforts, especially in the early stage of the epidemic, are significant in reducing the number of infections and shortening the epidemic period. In the medical aspect, the more stringent quarantine brings the earlier inflection point of the epidemic; more importantly, improving the treatment rate significantly reduces the scale of the epidemic. In the administrative aspect, enforcing individual protection and strict community closure can effectively cut off the transmission of the virus and curb the spread of the epidemic. Finally, this research proposes several practical suggestions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main contribution of this research is that the effects of different response measures on the number of new infections daily and the cumulative number of deaths of a country or region in the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated quantitatively based on modeling and simulation.

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Section: Simulation Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantitative Analysis of COVID‐19 Pandemic Responses Based on an Improved SEIR‐SD Model

Liu

Deng

et al. 2022

Complexity

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“…First, let us discuss the R 0 parameter, known as an indicator of the infection rate or disease spread (16). Moreover, the reproduction number, R 0 , denotes the average number of new cases of a disease that arise from a single case (17). From equations ( 2) and (3), the equation for R 0 given by, 0 = 0 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…c. If R 0 > 1, every 'one' case will result in more than 'one' new positive case. For R 0 > 1, there is a potential for the virus to keep spreading, resulting in a pandemic causing more severe trouble in the future (17).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model

Yunus

Ibrahim

et al. 2021

Baghdad Sci.J

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The spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let's ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the R 0 value from time to time, hoping that the virus will vanish one day.

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“…This basically consists of determining a function called the generation time (mGT), which is the lag time between infection in a primary case and a secondary case. Thus, the population needed to be vaccinated will simply be [8]:…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of Infections and Number of Vaccines Needed to Avoid Covid-19 in Europe

Isea

2020

IJCV

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The work analyzes the dynamics of transmission of infections by the new coronavirus in twelve European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Romania, Czech Republic, and Portugal, whose data from contagion were obtained by Johns Hopkins University until September 24, 2020. The study confirmed that this new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) surprised all the countries of the world that had to improve their public health policies to confront this disease according to the results obtained from the calculation of the mantissa. Although the countries were able to improve their policies after the first wave of contagion, Spain and France have the highest proportion of cases that stand out significantly with the rest of the countries in the second wave of infections that the world faces again. Likewise, the beginning of the epidemic outbreak was determined, which could help to track the spread of the disease through European countries (not the first case registered in each country), from which it can be inferred that the outbreak begins in Italy and later the rebound begins in Germany, France, and Spain. Within days, it significantly affects Greece and Austria, reaching Denmark, the Czech Republic, Romania, and Croatia. Finally, the number of people who must be vaccinated to counteract the advance of Covid-19 in these European countries was determined based on the calculation of the Basic Reproductive Number, R0. The number of people that would have to be vaccinated in all these countries to counteract this disease sums up to 206.830.361.

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The basic reproduction number, R0, in structured populations

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

Quantitative Analysis of COVID‐19 Pandemic Responses Based on an Improved SEIR‐SD Model

Quantitative Analysis of COVID‐19 Pandemic Responses Based on an Improved SEIR‐SD Model

Future of Mathematical Modelling: A Review of COVID-19 Infected Cases Using S-I-R Model

Dynamics of Infections and Number of Vaccines Needed to Avoid Covid-19 in Europe

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