The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysis

Nottmeyer, Luise; Armstrong, Ben; Lowe, Rachel; Abbott, Sam; Meakin, Sophie; O’Reilly, Kathleen; Borries, Rosa von; Schneider, Rochelle; Royé, Dominic; Hashizume, Masahiro; Pascal, Mathilde; Tobías, Aurelio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Lavigne, Éric; Correa, Patricia Matus; Ortega, Nicolás Valdés; Kynčl, Jan; Urban, Aleš; Orru, Hans; Ryti, Niilo; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.; Dallavalle, Marco; Schneider, Alexandra; Honda, Yasushi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Alahmad, Barrak; Carrasco, Gabriel; Holobâc, Iulian Horia; Kim, Ho; Lee, Whanhee; Íñiguez, Carmen; Bell, Michelle L.; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel; Scovronick, Noah; Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilário Nascimento; Díaz, Magali Hurtado; Gasparrini, Antonio; Sera, Francesco

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158636

Cited by 43 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…46 Additionally, recent studies seem to indicate that weather can also alter transmissibility patterns of SARS-CoV2, although evidence remains sparse. 19,20 The COVID-19 pandemic might have also increased the vulnerability of the already frail population due to the overwhelmed healthcare system that eventually led to ine cient control of chronic diseases. Thus, it implies that our estimates of the mortality burden would account for the direct and indirect effects of heat partly ampli ed by the COVID-19 pandemic during the summer of 2022.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Current evidence, although still very sparse, suggests that weather may alter the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2. 19,20 Additionally, emerging hypotheses suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic might have exacerbated the vulnerability to heat of the population, either by increasing the population at risk (i.e., current or former COVID-19 patients with sequelae) and/or their vulnerability (i.e., compromised healthcare system). 21 Under current rates of warming, the summer of 2022 becomes an average season already in the coming decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland

Vicedo‐Cabrera

Schrijver

Schumacher

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As in most countries in Europe, the 2022 summer in Switzerland was exceptionally hot, only comparable to the infamous 2003 summer, and particularly devastating in terms of excess health burden. Here we combine methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the mortality associated with heat and the contribution of human-induced climate change in the 2022 summer in Switzerland. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151 - 1,068] due to heat between June-August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133-644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in Switzerland.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland

Vicedo‐Cabrera

Schrijver

Schumacher

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our results from the 10-month study period from August 2020 to May 2021 agree with the notion that viruses tend to survive longer in colder and drier conditions (e.g., [ 4 , 17 , 40 ]). When comparing to the results of Nottmeyer et al [ 41 ], we consider that it is also important to perform national level modelling since global multi-country studies may not adequately describe in detail the situation and climatic conditions in Finland. Trends in meteorological factors such as temperature or humidity can increase or decrease the activity of a specific virus at certain times of the year [ 4 , 42 , 43 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, the stringency index was selected to describe the extent of governmental mitigation measures, but an evaluation of how well this index fits Finland has not been performed. The index data has been available since 1 January 2020 and it has been used as an epidemiological index in several COVID-19 studies [ 10 , 12 , 41 , 46 , 47 ]. The index shows how the mitigation measures changed during the study period.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020–2021

Haga

Ruuhela

Auranen

et al. 2022

IJERPH

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We modelled the impact of selected meteorological factors on the daily number of new cases of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa in southern Finland from August 2020 until May 2021. We applied a DLNM (distributed lag non-linear model) with and without various environmental and non-environmental confounding factors. The relationship between the daily mean temperature or absolute humidity and COVID-19 morbidity shows a non-linear dependency, with increased incidence of COVID-19 at low temperatures between 0 to −10 °C or at low absolute humidity (AH) values below 6 g/m3. However, the outcomes need to be interpreted with caution, because the associations found may be valid only for the study period in 2020–2021. Longer study periods are needed to investigate whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has a seasonal pattern similar such as influenza and other viral respiratory infections. The influence of other non-environmental factors such as various mitigation measures are important to consider in future studies. Knowledge about associations between meteorological factors and COVID-19 can be useful information for policy makers and the education and health sector to predict and prepare for epidemic waves in the coming winters.

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“…Daily weather variables including temperature (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range), humidity (relative and absolute), wind speed, rainfall and solar exposure were collected from Melbourne (Olympic Park) station – 086,338 and obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) online data portal [ 27 ]. The weather variables were selected based on the results of previous studies, which indicate that colder weather conditions may contribute to changes in SARS-CoV-2 environmental survival time and host susceptibility factors and provide favourable conditions for the transmission of COVID-19 [ [28] , [29] , [30] ]. All internet search queries were identified and downloaded from Google Trends [ 31 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using weather factors and google data to predict COVID-19 transmission in Melbourne, Australia: A time-series predictive model

McClymont

2023

Heliyon

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The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation – A global multi-city analysis

Cited by 43 publications

References 70 publications

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland

Impact of Selected Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Incidence in Southern Finland during 2020–2021

Using weather factors and google data to predict COVID-19 transmission in Melbourne, Australia: A time-series predictive model

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