The Assessment of Impacts and Risks of Climate Change on Agriculture (AIRCCA) model: a tool for the rapid global risk assessment for crop yields at a spatially explicit scale

Abstract

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Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico

“…A relevant application of the proposed methodology is to provide risk measures that are currently not available from the original biophysical crop models. The library of realizations in the information set H, in combination with resampling methods, can be used to approximate the empirical distribution of crop yields conditional on the level of warming T g at time t. Specifically, for each time step t, the set of realizations in H are resampled with replacement n times and the resulting four-dimensional matrix (latitude, longitude, time, resampled realizations) can be used to approximate the probability of exceedance of a risk threshold defined by the user (Estrada et al, 2020;Estrada and Botzen, 2021). A risk threshold based on the percent change in yields is defined by the user and the probabilities of exceedance are computed from the four-dimensional matrix of yields.…”

“…The increasing availability of crop projection databases from leading modelling groups allows proposing simple model emulators based on statistical techniques (Blanc, 2017;Estrada et al, 2020). These emulators have low technical and computing requirements and aim helping a variety of users who have no access to biophysical crop models, but that have information needs that may go beyond publicly available datasets.…”

Bioinoculants in Technological Alleviation of Climatic Stress in Plants

“…The agriculture sector has been considered as the main channel through which irreparable climatic change will influence the global economy [1]. The commercial plantation of crops has been severely influenced by various environmental factors mainly being drought, salinity, and intense temperature variation.…”

Calming the Waves

“…The intensification of climate hazards would adversely affect both societies and economies. Agriculture is expected to be significantly affected by droughts, especially in the developing world (Estrada et al, 2020a;Tol, 2018).…”

“…Such spatially explicit climate data can be used in assessing potential changes in climate under various mitigation efforts (Meinshausen et al, 2011b) and a multitude of socioeconomic developments (van Vuuren and Carter, 2014). Reduced complexity climate simulation models such as MAGICC have been developed and are still actively used by the IPCC to project the evolution of global temperatures under various scenarios (Meinshausen et al, 2011a;Hartin et al, 2015;Estrada et al, 2020a).…”