The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

Serreze, Mark C.; Meier, Walter N.

doi:10.1111/nyas.13856

Cited by 176 publications

(168 citation statements)

References 106 publications

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“…Sea ice in the region sampled by the BGEP moorings includes the southern arm of the perennial ice pack in the Beaufort Gyre as well as new ice from the Chukchi Sea recirculating in the central gyre with remnant perennial ice. Sea ice in this region has also seen some of the most rapid rates of thinning and retreat in recent years (Serreze & Meier, ; Stroeve et al, ). By tracking buoys and pseudobuoys drifting over moored IPSs, we have conclusively demonstrated that the more time that sea ice spends in the southern Beaufort Sea during summer (particularly late summer), the more melt it experiences.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. Serreze & Meier, 2018). Of particular significance in this regard is the loss of the oldest and thickest multiyear (MY) ice (Maslanik et al, 2011), which is expected to accelerate further ice loss (Comiso et al, 2008;Kwok, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in the Thickness and Circulation of Multiyear Ice in the Beaufort Gyre Determined From Pseudo‐Lagrangian Methods from 2003–2015

et al. 2019

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We combine Eulerian ice draft observations from moored ice‐profiling sonars with buoy‐ and satellite‐derived ice drift data to obtain Lagrangian observations of changes in the thickness distribution of sea ice circulating the Beaufort Sea. We examine repeat measurements of ice draft by identifying events where buoys or pseudobuoys made repeat overpasses within 30 km of ice‐profiling sonar‐equipped Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project moorings. Comparison of ice draft distributions from each overpass indicates that summertime melt rates are related to drift track, with more melt occurring in the southern Beaufort Sea than to the north. Additionally, we find that ice surviving summer in the Beaufort Sea since 2007 is similar in thickness to surrounding first‐year sea ice by the end of the following winter. These findings are supported by continuous ice thickness data from ice mass balance buoys. By examining “plumes” of pseudobuoys originating at each mooring location, we identify anomalous northward transport of ice in the southern Beaufort Sea in 2007 that likely contributed to the record‐breaking reduction in sea ice extent that year. We also find that repeat overpasses have been much rarer since 2007, due to reduced summertime sea ice extent in the Beaufort Gyre and possible changes in ice drift patterns. These changes contribute to diminished replenishment of multiyear sea ice volume in the Arctic.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in the Thickness and Circulation of Multiyear Ice in the Beaufort Gyre Determined From Pseudo‐Lagrangian Methods from 2003–2015

et al. 2019

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“…The most striking change witnessed is the decline in Arctic sea ice extent since it has been continuously monitored by satellites beginning in the late 1970s (Parkinson & Cavalieri, ; Parkinson & DiGirolamo, ). More recently, since the early 2000s, the sea ice has experienced an increased rate of decline in extent and thickness (Serreze & Meier, ), switching to a seasonal first‐year dominated ice pack (Maslanik et al, ; Nghiem et al, ) compared to the sea ice of the 1980–1990s (e.g., Comiso et al, ; Kwok & Rothrock, ; Lindsay & Schweiger, ). This loss in sea ice coverage has allowed for the ocean surface and atmosphere to interact in regions and seasons when sea ice previously prohibited such exchanges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaporation From the Southern Ocean Estimated on the Basis of AIRS Satellite Data

2020

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Evaporation plays an important role in the global water and energy cycles and, hence, in climate change. Evaporation over the Southern Ocean, where the Antarctic sea ice coverage has a large annual cycle, is poorly quantified. In this study, daily evaporation is estimated for the Southern Ocean with a sea-ice-specific algorithm, using surface temperature and air humidity from National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and wind speeds from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), reanalysis during 2003-2016. An uncertainty of 34% was found in the evaporation product. The results indicate that annual evaporation has considerable interannual and regional variability, but with a decreasing trend during the study period over most of the Southern Ocean. There are, however, areas where evaporation has increased, specifically in the Ross Sea in winter and summer, with smaller positive trends in spring and fall. Overall, the changes in the difference between the surface specific humidity and the air specific humidity, and to a much lesser extent in the wind speed, are the main drivers for the changes in evaporation throughout the year. During spring and fall months, changes to the sea ice cover, which alter the surface specific humidity, are the main drivers for the change, but in summer and winter the main driver is the air-specific humidity. Air masses originating from the Antarctic continent (south) are associated with cold and dry conditions, which increase evaporation, whereas air masses from lower latitudes in the Southern Ocean (north) are associated with warm and moist conditions, decreasing evaporation. Comparisons with other reanalysis evaporation products produce similar trends, although annual averages differ.

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“…The long‐term decline in the annual mean Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) is one of the clearest indicators of climate change, and certainly one that generates more scientific and social concern than most (IPCC, ). Arctic SIE has decreased substantially over the last four decades, with the reduction in late summer and early autumn since the beginning of the 2000s being particularly noteworthy (e.g., Lee et al, ; Serreze & Meier, ). The environmental implications of the retreat of the Arctic ice are of great importance, and the scientific study of its causes and consequences encompasses a very broad spectrum of disciplines, including atmospheric and oceanic sciences, ecology, marine biology, and even economics and energy resources (IPCC, or Bhatt et al, for a review).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

Gimeno

Vázquez

Eiras‐Barca

et al. 2019

WIREs Climate Change

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This article contains a review of the transport of moisture to the Arctic and its effect on Arctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE). The review includes a synthesis of our knowledge regarding the main sources supplying moisture to the Arctic, the changes experienced over the last few decades due to variations in the transport of moisture, the factors that control interannual variability, and the inherent contrast in the mechanisms related to the effect of changes in moisture transport on SIE in the Arctic. We note that the precise identification of the moisture sources for the Arctic depends both on the definition of the Arctic region itself and on the approach used to identify the sources, with the remote regions over the extratropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans being universally important, as are some continental areas over Siberia and North America. This review also reaffirms the absence of any clear agreement regarding the trends in atmospheric moisture transport to the Arctic, and highlights discrepancies between different data sets and approaches in the quantification of moisture transport, implying that its long‐term impact on the intensification of the hydrological cycle in the Arctic remains unclear. We confirm the influence of the major modes of climate variability, planetary circulation patterns, and the changes in cyclonic activity in the variability of moisture transport to the Arctic. We reaffirm that the effect of moisture transport on the Arctic SIE through changes in humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation over the Arctic is a complex scientific problem that requires further detailed study over the decades to come, and we propose some important challenges for future research. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

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The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

Cited by 176 publications

References 106 publications

Changes in the Thickness and Circulation of Multiyear Ice in the Beaufort Gyre Determined From Pseudo‐Lagrangian Methods from 2003–2015

Changes in the Thickness and Circulation of Multiyear Ice in the Beaufort Gyre Determined From Pseudo‐Lagrangian Methods from 2003–2015

Evaporation From the Southern Ocean Estimated on the Basis of AIRS Satellite Data

Atmospheric moisture transport and the decline in Arctic Sea ice

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