The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

Mörner, Nils‐Axel

doi:10.4236/ns.2015.711052

Cited by 20 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…This is obtained measuring the high of the present day sea level on the submerged quarry floor. This estimation of RSL is in good agreement with what was derived from proxy data on salt-marsh sediments and assemblages of foraminifera for the LIA [61]. Moreover, data of the submerged quarries of the Alghero area allow the conclusion that the rate of relative sea-level rise occurred during the last 200 years; that is, since 1809-1821 AD [60].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

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New Estimation of the Post Little Ice Age Relative Sea Level Rise

2019

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The study area is located in NW Sardinia Island (Italy), Mediterranean Sea. Sardinia is considered stable since the late Pliocene with a negligible subsidence of about 0.01 mm/y. It is therefore normally used to reconstruct the Pleistocene and Holocene sea level curves. Our research focusses on the sea-facing city of Alghero that from 1353 to 1720 was under the Spanish government. During this time, the city was renovated and new buildings edified. Dimension stones were quarried all around Alghero both in the nearby inland and along the coast. Coastal quarries were considered the most suitable for both rock quality and the easiest way to transport the quarried material by boat. The quarried rocks are late Pleistocene dune and beach sandstones deposited from the 132 ka (Marine Isotopic Stage—MIS5) to about 65 ka (MIS4). Sandstones crop out from few cm to 3 m above the present sea level and underwent several consolidation processes related to loading and marine weathering. This latter favoured dissolution and circulation of calcium carbonate which cemented the rocks. It is reported that the Spanish were looking for these “marine” sandstones for their high geotechnical characteristics. Different rules were adopted through time for the size of the dimension stones and this has allowed us to establish a quarry exploitation chronology. For example, “40 × 60 × 20” cm was the size of the dimension stones used for the Alghero Cathedral dated at 1505–1593. Nowadays most of the coastal Spanish quarry floors are 30 centimetres below mean sea level (tidal range is 30 cm). Accordingly, we infer that relative sea level from 1830 AD (and of the Little Ice Age) rose in about 200 years to the present level at the rate of about 1.4 mm/y. Considering that relative sea level rise during the Medieval warm period was of 0.6 mm/y over a period of about 400 years, we may deduce that human influence was strong enough to lead to a relative sea-level rise faster and in shorter time.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…This could be related 1) to quarry flooding, and 2) to the end of the exploited material. During this part of LIA (coincident with the Maunder minimum), sea level was at its minimum [61]. Thus, it seems unlikely to relate the moving to quarry floor flooding.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

New Estimation of the Post Little Ice Age Relative Sea Level Rise

2019

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“…Herein we hypothesize that the 2100-2500 yr oscillation in the radiocarbon records has an astronomical origin, and search whether an astronomical record clearly manifests such an oscillation. In this regard, Charvátová (2000) was the first in suggesting that the observed 2100-2500 yr oscillation could be caused by the solar inertial motion, that is by the wobbling of the Sun around the barycenter of : Mörner, 2015;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2012a. Moreover, again using a simplified model, Scafetta (2012c) showed that the conjunctions of Jupiter and Saturn, using their tropical orbital periods, fully precess over a quasi 2400 year period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…A planetary origin of solar and climate oscillations, which has been proposed since antiquity, does have numerous empirical evidences and some preliminary explanations (e.g. : Abreu et al, 2012;Charvátová, 2009;Cionco and Soon, 2014;Hung, 2007;Fairbridge, 1984;Fairbridge and Sanders, 1987;Jakubcová and Pick, 1986;Jose, 1965;McCracken et al, 2013McCracken et al, , 2014Mörner, 2013Mörner, , 2015Mortari, 2010;Puetz et al, 2014;Salvador, 2013;Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2012aScafetta, ,b, 2013Scafetta, , 2014aScafetta, , 2016Scafetta and Willson, 2013a,b;Sharp, 2013;Solheim, 2013;Tan and Cheng, 2013;Tattersall, 2013a,b;Wilson, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene

Scafetta

Milani²,

Bianchini

et al. 2016

Earth-Science Reviews

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An oscillation with a period of about 2100–2500 years, the Hallstatt cycle, is found in cosmogenic radioisotopes (14C and 10Be) and in paleoclimate records throughout the Holocene. This oscillation is typically associated with solar variations, but its primary physical origin remains uncertain. Herein we show strong evidences for an astronomical origin of this cycle. Namely, this oscillation is coherent to a repeating pattern in the periodic revolution of the planets around the Sun: the major stable resonance involving the four Jovian planets - Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune - which has a period of about p = 2318 years. Inspired by the Milankovi´ c’s theory of an astronomical origin of the glacial cycles, we test whether the Hallstatt cycle could derive from the rhythmic variation of the circularity of the solar system assuming that this dynamics could eventually modulate the solar wind and, consequently, the incoming cosmic ray flux and/or the interplanetary/cosmic dust concentration around the Earth-Moon system. The orbit of the planetary mass center (PMC) relative to the Sun was used as a proxy.We analyzed how the instantaneous eccentricity vector of this virtual orbit varies from 13,000 BCE to 17,000 CE. We found that it undergoes kind of pulsations as it clearly presents rhythmic contraction and expansion patterns with a 2318 year period together with a number of already known faster oscillations associated to the planetary orbital stable resonances, which are theoretically calculated. These periods include a quasi 20-year oscillation, a quasi 60-year oscillation, the 82-97 year Gleissberg oscillation and the 159-185 year Jose oscillation. There exists a quasi p/2 phase shift between the 2100–2500 year oscillation found in the 14C record and that of the calculated eccentricity function. Namely, at the Hallstatt-cycle time scale, a larger production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more elliptical shapes (e ≈ 0.598) to more circular ones (e ≈ 0.590), that is while the orbital system is slowly imploding or bursting inward; a smaller production of radionucleotide particles occurs while the Sun-PMC orbit evolves from more circular shapes (e ≈ 0.590) to a more elliptical ones (e ≈ 0.598), that is while the orbital system is slowly exploding or bursting outward. Since at this timescale the PMC eccentricity variation is relatively small (e = 0.594 ± 0.004), the physical origin of the astronomical 2318 year cycle is better identified and distinguished from faster orbital oscillations by the times it takes the PMC to make pericycles and apocycles around the Sun and the times it takes to move from minimum to maximum distance from the Sun within those arcs. These particular proxies reveal a macroscopic 2318 year period oscillation, together with other three stable outer planets orbital resonances with periods of 159, 171 and 185 years. This 2318 year oscillation is found to be spectrally coherent with the D14C Holocene record with a statistical confidence above 95%, as deter...

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“…Therefore, the best prediction for a sea level change at year 2100 seems to be +5 cm ± 15 cm [30], in strong disagreement to numerous models (all lacking validation in observational facts) as illustrated in Figure 4 from [31]. (from [34] [35]). This implies that we, in two decades will be in the low of a New Grand Solar Minimum and in climate conditions like previous Little Ice Ages.…”

Section: Sea Level Changesmentioning

confidence: 94%

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or Natural Global Warming (NGM)

Mörner¹

2018

Self Cite

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The concept of an anthropogenic global warming (AGW) driven by the increase in atmospheric CO 2 is compared to the concept of a natural global warming (NGW) driven by solar variability. The application of the AGW concept only rests on models, whilst the NGW concept rests on multiple observational and evidence-based facts. Even more so, the long-term solar variability predicts a new Grand Solar Minimum with severe climatic conditions (type Little Ice Age) to occur in 2030-2050. This violates all talk about an increasing, even accelerating, global warming. Similarly, there is no true treat of a future sea level rise flooding lowlands and islands.

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The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

New Estimation of the Post Little Ice Age Relative Sea Level Rise

New Estimation of the Post Little Ice Age Relative Sea Level Rise

On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) or Natural Global Warming (NGM)

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