The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (Mw7.8) and the tsunami hazard presented by shallow megathrust ruptures

Lay, Thorne; Ammon, Charles J.; Kanamori, Hiroo; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Hutko, A. R.

doi:10.1029/2010gl046552

Cited by 99 publications

(111 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…et al, 2010; Lay et al, 2011a). Comparisons of observations of deep-water tsunami recordings with predictions of the fault models support up-dip concentration of slip for the mainshock, perhaps with large slip all the way to the trench (Lay et al, 2011b, c).…”

Section: The 11 March 2011 Rupturementioning

confidence: 99%

Outer trench-slope faulting and the 2011 M w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

et al. 2011

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The 11 March 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M w 9.0) produced megathrust displacements of at least 40 m. The resulting tsunami devastated the Honshu coast southwest of regions struck by earthquakegenerated tsunami in 1611, 1896 and 1933. The 1896 Meiji-Sanriku earthquake was also an underthrusting earthquake, but the 1933 Sanriku-oki earthquake was a trench-slope normal faulting event; both generated inundation heights of 10 to 25 m along the coast of Iwate prefecture. Possible occurrence of a great outer trenchslope earthquake seaward of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake along a southwestward extension of the 1933 fault zone is a concern. The second largest 2011 aftershock, an outer rise M w 7.7 normal faulting earthquake occurred near the southern end of the 1933 rupture. Additional aftershock activity has been distributed along a trend below the trench and diffusely spread in the outer rise, seaward of the megathrust region where the largest slip occurred. Coulomb stress perturbations of at least 5-10 bars are calculated for outer rise normal fault geometries for mainshock slip models. Whether a future great trench slope event will occur is uncertain, but the potential tsunamigenic hazard can be gauged by the huge inundations accompanying the 1933 rupture.

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Section: The 11 March 2011 Rupturementioning

confidence: 99%

Outer trench-slope faulting and the 2011 M w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

et al. 2011

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“…This earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands that took at least 431 lives (Lay et al, 2011a). The population density in the radius of 200 km is 3 people km −2 and population density near epicenter is given in Fig.…”

Section: Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake Tsunami and Gdacs Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The on-line calculations are also available to the users accessing the GDACS website but these cannot be useful for the alerting logic because the online calculations take about 30-40 min to be completed. The flowchart of GDACS web applications for earthquake and tsunami alerts is shown in Fig Lay et al (2011a) In general the GDACS alerts are based on three classes according to the likelihood of humanitarian disasters, international assistance possibility and expected maximum tsunami heights (Table 1). These classes are created by the risk models and selected by a computer program based on the earliest available information of an event.…”

Section: Red Alertmentioning

confidence: 99%

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

Ulutaş

Inan

Annunziato³

2012

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study analyzes the response of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS) in relation to a case study: the Kepulaunan Mentawai earthquake and related tsunami, which occurred on 25 October 2010. The GDACS, developed by the European Commission Joint Research Center, combines existing web-based disaster information management systems with the aim to alert the international community in case of major disasters. The tsunami simulation system is an integral part of the GDACS. In more detail, the study aims to assess the tsunami hazard on the Mentawai and Sumatra coasts: the tsunami heights and arrival times have been estimated employing three propagation models based on the long wave theory. The analysis was performed in three stages: (1) pre-calculated simulations by using the tsunami scenario database for that region, used by the GDACS system to estimate the alert level; (2) near-real-time simulated tsunami forecasts, automatically performed by the GDACS system whenever a new earthquake is detected by the seismological data providers; and (3) post-event tsunami calculations using GCMT (Global Centroid Moment Tensor) fault mechanism solutions proposed by US Geological Survey (USGS) for this event. The GDACS system estimates the alert level based on the first type of calculations and on that basis sends alert messages to its users; the second type of calculations is available within 30–40 min after the notification of the event but does not change the estimated alert level. The third type of calculations is performed to improve the initial estimations and to have a better understanding of the extent of the possible damage. The automatic alert level for the earthquake was given between Green and Orange Alert, which, in the logic of GDACS, means no need or moderate need of international humanitarian assistance; however, the earthquake generated 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands where 431 people died. The post-event calculations indicated medium-high humanitarian impacts.

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“…NEOWAVE has been validated with near and far-field measurements from the Samoa, 2010Mentawai, 2010Chile, 2011Tohoku, 2012 Haida Gwaii, and the 2013 Santa Cruz Islands tsunamis (Lay et al 2011a(Lay et al , b, 2013aRoeber et al 2010;Yamazaki and Cheung 2011;Yamazaki et al 2011aYamazaki et al , c, 2012bYamazaki et al , 2013.…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes

Butler

Walsh²,

Richards

2016

Nat Hazards

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The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami motivated an analysis of the potential for great tsunamis in Hawai'i that significantly exceed the historical record. The largest potential tsunamis that may impact the state from distant, Mw 9 earthquakes-as forecast by two independent tsunami models-originate in the Eastern Aleutian Islands. This analysis is the basis for creating an extreme tsunami evacuation zone, updating prior zones based only on historical tsunami inundation. We first validate the methodology by corroborating that the largest historical tsunami in 1946 is consistent with the seismologically determined earthquake source and observed historical tsunami amplitudes in Hawai'i. Using prior source characteristics of Mw 9 earthquakes (fault area, slip, and distribution), we analyze parametrically the range of Aleutian-Alaska earthquake sources that produce the most extreme tsunami events in Hawai'i. Key findings include: (1) An Mw 8.6 ± 0.1 1946 Aleutian earthquake source fits Hawai'i tsunami run-up/inundation observations, (2) for the 40 scenarios considered here, maximal tsunami inundations everywhere in the Hawaiian Islands cannot be generated by a single large earthquake, (3) depending on location, the largest inundations may occur for either earthquakes with the largest slip at the trench, or those with broad faulting over an extended area, (4) these extremes are shown to correlate with the frequency content (wavelength) of the tsunami, (5) highly variable slip along the fault strike has only a minor influence on inundation at these teletsunami distances, and (6) for a given maximum average fault slip, increasing the fault area does not generally produce greater run-up, as the additional wave energy enhances longer wavelengths, with a modest effect on inundation.

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The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (M_w7.8) and the tsunami hazard presented by shallow megathrust ruptures

Cited by 99 publications

References 22 publications

Outer trench-slope faulting and the 2011 M w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Outer trench-slope faulting and the 2011 M w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake

Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System: a case study of the 2010 Kepulaunan Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

Extreme tsunami inundation in Hawai‘i from Aleutian–Alaska subduction zone earthquakes

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