The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come

Abstract

Decreasing labour productivity, increased capacity for the transmission of diseases such as dengue fever, malaria, and cholera, and threats to food security provide early warning of compounding negative health and nutrition effects if temperatures continue to rise. Adaptation, planning, and resilience for health Global inertia in adapting to climate change persists, with a mixed response from national governments since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. More than half of global cities surveyed expect climate change to seriously compromise public health infrastructure, either directly, with extremes of weather disrupting crucial services, or indirectly, through the overwhelming of existing services with increased burdens of disease (indicator 2.2). Globally, spending for climate change adaptation remains well below the $100 billion per year commitment made under the Paris Agreement. Within this annual spending, only 3•8% of total development spending committed through formal UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) mechanisms is dedicated to human health (indicator 2.8). This low investment in Panel 1: Progress towards the recommendations of the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change In 2015, the Lancet Commission made ten policy recommendations. Of these ten recommendations, the Lancet Countdown is measuring progress on the following: Recommendation 1: invest in climate change and public health research Since 2007, the number of published articles on health and climate change in scientific journals has increased by 182% (indicator 5.2). Recommendation 2: scale up financing for climate-resilient health systems Spending on direct health adaptation as a proportion of total adaptation spending increased in 2017 to 4•8% (£11•68 billion), which is an increase in absolute and relative terms from the previous year (indicator 2.7). Health-related adaptation spending (including disaster response and food and agriculture) was estimated at 15•2% of total adaptation spend. Although this national-level spending is increasing, climate financing for mitigation and adaptation remains well below the US$100 billion per year committed in the Paris Agreement (indicator 2.8). Recommendation 3: phase out coal-fired power Coal consumption remains high, but continued to decline in 2017, a trend which is largely driven by China's decreased reliance and continued investment in renewable energy (indicators 3.2 and 3.3). The Powering Past Coal Alliance (an alliance of 23 countries including the UK, Italy, Canada, and France) was launched at the 23rd Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December, 2017 (COP23), committing to phase out coal use by 2030 or earlier. Recommendation 4: encourage city-level low-carbon transition to reduce urban pollution In 2017, a new milestone was reached, with more than 2 million electric vehicles on the road, and with global per-capita electricity consumption for road transport increasing by 13% from 2013 to 2015 (indicator 3.6). C...

The 2019 report of theMJA–LancetCountdown on health and climate change: a turbulent year with mixed progress

“…Exposure to news coverage about health and climate change in Australia has declined over the past decade. This decline contrasts with the increase in global media coverage of this topic …”

“…This section examines the financial and economic enablers of a transition to a low carbon economy, and the implications of inaction . We consider recent developments in mitigating carbon emissions and the transition of the electricity sector to a substantial share of renewable energy generation.…”

Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health

“…The sensitivity of human health to changes in the climate has been established with very high confidence (Smith et al , ; Watts et al , ). A most direct impact in a warming world is the ensuing change in the heat‐ and cold‐related mortality (Basu and Samet, ; Kovats and Hajat, ; Gasparrini et al , ).…”

Climate change: beyond denial and grief

“…Beyond that level, even half a degree will significantly worsen the risk of drought, floods, extreme heat, and poverty for hundreds of millions, especially in coastal areas and on islands 5. These in turn will have a huge impact on population health and the viability of national health systems 6. Reversal of this process in sufficient time would require an unprecedented shift in energy use, transport, agriculture, forestry and almost every other aspect of human industry, all on an unimaginably rapid scale.…”