Testing Plant Phenophase as Proxy: Sensitivity Analysis of First Flowering Data From the 19th Century

Abstract

Abstract. Eco-climatological studies recognise plant phenophases as high-confident climate indicators, since they are strongly dependent on heat conditions. We investigated the first flowering response of numerous plant species to inter-annual fluctuation of seasonal temperatures (e.g., heat sensitivity of the phenophase), also the rate of these species-specific sensitivities in order to test their applicability as proxy. From the few available data sources recorded in the Carpathian Basin during the 19th century, the first flowering data sets of 16 plant species and time series of monthly mean temperature (site: Hermannstadt; period: 1851-1891), furthermore the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected for the analysis. We found that the first flowering dates of different plants fluctuated significantly synchronously, however, temporal trends were not detected in any of the time series. Based on the main heat sensitivity characteristics the species were ranked as phyto-thermometers to select the best heat indicator plants. The first flowering data of these indicators were applicable to estimate temperature data. The accuracy of different plants as proxies varied in the range of 1.0 °C and 1.5 °C. Therefore our procedure is of interest in order to better understand past climates of periods at locations where no instrumental records are available.

Natural proxy records of temperature- and hydroclimate variability with annual resolution from the Northern Balkan–Carpathian region for the past millennium – Review & recalibration

“…Additional historical vine and grape phenology data are available from Kecskemét (Central Hungary) from the late 17 th to the early 19 th centuries (Szabó, 1934), and from Kőszeg for the period of 1649 -1820 (Szövényi, 1965). However, neither data set has been analyzed from a climatological point of view (Kiss, 2009 (Vucetic and Vucetić, 2006) or Romania (Lehoczky et al, 2016). To fill in the many gaps in the presently available records is a major task for the future.…”

Comparative study of flowering phenology of selected plant life forms in urban and rural environments : Preliminary results

“…Previous research on the Carpathian Basin (Keresztes 1984, Walkovszky 1998, Schieber et al 2009, Eppich et al 2009, Molnár et al 2012, Varga et al 2012, Lehoczky et al 2016 did not follow Primack's method but still provided important data. Several previous studies (e.g., Menzel 2000, Roetzer et al 2000, Walkovszky 1998, Eppich 2009) confirmed that flowering phases advanced during the 20th century, which is connected with the increasing temperature.…”

“…Many research shows that temperature change significantly affects the life cycle of plants (e.g. Scheifinger et al 2003, Kunkel et al 2004, Hansen et al 2006, Lehoczky et al 2016.…”

“…Several studies demonstrate significant shifts in phenological phases of plants across Europe (e.g., Menzel and Fabian 1999;Menzel 2000, Chmielewski and Roetzer 2001, Schleip et al 2009. Shifts in phenological events in the Carpathian Basin are particularly poorly documented, with a few exceptions coming from the works of Keresztes (1984), Walkovszky (1998), Schieber et al (2009), Eppich et al (2009), Molnár et al (2012), Varga et al (2012), Lehoczky et al (2016), andSzabó et al (2016). Keresztes (1984), Walkovszky (1998), andVarga et al (2012) are focusing on their study on Robinia pseudoacacia, a non-native species for the Carpathian Basin, however, there is a lack of studies with emphasis on native species' phenology in Hungary.…”