Testing for statistical and market efficiency when forecast errors are non-normal: the NFL betting market revisited

Power-law distribution in Japanese racetrack betting

“…They found no clear indication of breakdown of efficiency. These results are re-examined Cain et al and Ioannidis and Peel by different methods [3,4] Email address: miya@nsc.es.hokudai.ac.jp (Takashi Ichinomiya).…”

Power-law distribution in Japanese racetrack betting

“…They found no clear indication of breakdown of efficiency. These results are re-examined Cain et al and Ioannidis and Peel by different methods [3,4] Email address: miya@nsc.es.hokudai.ac.jp (Takashi Ichinomiya).…”

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

“…Since home teams win in almost 50% of games, they are more likely to be favourites than away teams. Some studies have found evidence for favourite-longshot bias in European fixed odds betting markets [3]. To the extent that bookmakers are prone to this bias and the Fink Tank predictions avoid such bias then it is possible to derive positive returns from betting on home teams using the Fink Tank.…”

“…Subsequent analyses have documented the existence of mispricing as well as the apparent existence of pure arbitrage possibilities in European fixed-odds football betting markets [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. There are numerous papers that have investigated market efficiency in other sports betting markets such as horse racing, National Football League, greyhounds, National Hockey League, Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association (see Sauer [10] and Williams [11] for surveys).…”

Bettor Biases and the Home-Underdog Bias in the NFL

“…2Dare and Dennis (2011) are not the first to use this sort of model. A similar model was also used by Cain, et al (2000), and Ioannidis and Peel (2005).…”

Power-law distribution in Japanese racetrack betting

“…They found no clear indication of breakdown of efficiency. These results are re-examined Cain et al and Ioannidis and Peel by different methods [3,4] Email address: miya@nsc.es.hokudai.ac.jp (Takashi Ichinomiya).…”

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

“…Since home teams win in almost 50% of games, they are more likely to be favourites than away teams. Some studies have found evidence for favourite-longshot bias in European fixed odds betting markets [3]. To the extent that bookmakers are prone to this bias and the Fink Tank predictions avoid such bias then it is possible to derive positive returns from betting on home teams using the Fink Tank.…”

“…Subsequent analyses have documented the existence of mispricing as well as the apparent existence of pure arbitrage possibilities in European fixed-odds football betting markets [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. There are numerous papers that have investigated market efficiency in other sports betting markets such as horse racing, National Football League, greyhounds, National Hockey League, Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association (see Sauer [10] and Williams [11] for surveys).…”

Bettor Biases and the Home-Underdog Bias in the NFL

“…2Dare and Dennis (2011) are not the first to use this sort of model. A similar model was also used by Cain, et al (2000), and Ioannidis and Peel (2005).…”

Power-law distribution in Japanese racetrack betting

“…They found no clear indication of breakdown of efficiency. These results are re-examined Cain et al and Ioannidis and Peel by different methods [3,4] Email address: miya@nsc.es.hokudai.ac.jp (Takashi Ichinomiya).…”

Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

“…Since home teams win in almost 50% of games, they are more likely to be favourites than away teams. Some studies have found evidence for favourite-longshot bias in European fixed odds betting markets [3]. To the extent that bookmakers are prone to this bias and the Fink Tank predictions avoid such bias then it is possible to derive positive returns from betting on home teams using the Fink Tank.…”

“…Subsequent analyses have documented the existence of mispricing as well as the apparent existence of pure arbitrage possibilities in European fixed-odds football betting markets [3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. There are numerous papers that have investigated market efficiency in other sports betting markets such as horse racing, National Football League, greyhounds, National Hockey League, Major League Baseball and National Basketball Association (see Sauer [10] and Williams [11] for surveys).…”

Bettor Biases and the Home-Underdog Bias in the NFL

“…2Dare and Dennis (2011) are not the first to use this sort of model. A similar model was also used by Cain, et al (2000), and Ioannidis and Peel (2005).…”