Tendência dos Índices de Extremos Climáticos Observados e Projetados no Estado de Minas Gerais

Natividade, Ulisses Antônio; Garcia, Sâmia Regina; Torres, Roger Rodrigues

doi:10.1590/0102-7786324008

Cited by 24 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Muitos sistemas naturais estão sendo afetados pelas mudanças climáticas regionais (RESENDE et al, 2019) e o impacto dessas mudanças será maior no setor agrícola e nos países em que a agricultura é a atividade econômica primária (PORFIRIO et al, 2018), como o Brasil (TAVARES et al, 2018;RESENDE et al, 2019). Nesse contexto, a região sudeste, especialmente o estado de Minas Gerais (MG), é considerado um dos mais vulneráveis às mudanças climáticas (DARELA-FILHO et al, 2016;NATIVIDADE et al, 2017;SANTOS et al, 2017;TAVARES et al, 2018) devido ao grande contingente populacional (21.040.662 habitantes IBGE, 2019) e à taxa de pobreza, principalmente, na região norte do estado (3,01% taxa de pobreza extrema IPEA, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Balanço Hídrico Climatológico Para Itajubá-Mg: Cenário Atual E Projeções Climáticas

Alves¹,

Martins²,

Reboita³

2021

RBClima

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Projeções climáticas ao longo do século XXI têm indicado aumento da temperatura do ar, e irregularidades na precipitação no Estado de Minas Gerais (MG), os quais afetarão a evapotranspiração e, consequentemente, o balanço hídrico. Dessa forma, o objetivo desse trabalho foi verificar o impacto das mudanças climáticas no balanço hídrico climatológico (BHC) no município de Itajubá no período de 2021 a 2099 considerando o cenário de emissão Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Neste estudo, foram utilizadas projeções do modelo climático regional RegCM4 dirigido pelas saídas do modelo global HadGEM2-ES. O BHC foi calculado para o clima presente (1979 – 2005), futuro próximo (2021 – 2049) e futuro distante (2071 – 2099), considerando o método de Thornthwaite e Mather simplificado, em que considera como dado de entrada a climatologia mensal da temperatura média do ar e da precipitação. Projeta-se, no final do século XXI, um aumento de aproximadamente 5ºC na temperatura média do ar para Itajubá, além de um padrão heterogêneo de precipitação, com projeções de aumento nos meses de primavera e verão e redução nos meses de outono e inverno. Para o BHC é projetado aumento gradual na evapotranspiração real, chegando a 86 mm mês-1 nos meses de verão, e alteração na deficiência (DEF) e excedente hídrico (EXC). De maneira geral, é projetado um aumento da DEF e EXC nos meses de outono, inverno e verão, respectivamente. Tais alterações podem acarretar prejuízos para os principais cultivos de Itajubá, como o milho, a batata, o feijão e o café.

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Section: Introductionunclassified

Balanço Hídrico Climatológico Para Itajubá-Mg: Cenário Atual E Projeções Climáticas

Alves¹,

Martins²,

Reboita³

2021

RBClima

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“…Southeastern Brazil, in the hydrological years of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015, experienced the worst water crisis yet observed due to rainfall much below average and high temperatures in the summer [5] [6] [7]. That water crisis may be associated with a number of factors, such as: socio-spatial disparities, losses in the water distribution networks, poor infrastructure, inadequate political actions for socioeconomic development and environmental education, and deforestation of the Atlantic Forest [7] [8] [9] [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Small Brazilian Headwater Catchment Using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

Alvarenga¹,

Mello²,

Colombo³

et al. 2018

AJCC

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Climate change is one of the greatest issues for human society. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate change on seasonal average discharge and monthly water budget in a small headwater catchment, located on the Grande River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The assessment is carried out using the hydrology model, DHSVM. The atmospheric forcing to drive the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) is derived from the downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES projections by the Eta Regional Climate Model, at 5-km high resolution. The projections assume the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC AR5 emission scenarios. Baseline period was taken between 1961 and 1990. The projections are assessed in three time slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099). The climate change is assessed in time slices of 30 years and in comparison against the baseline period to evaluate the hydrological changes in the catchment. The results showed differences in the hydrological behavior between the emission scenarios and though time slices. Reductions in the magnitude of the seasonal average discharge and monthly water budget may alter the water availability. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, results show greater reductions in the water availability in the first time slice, whereas under RCP8.5 scenario greater reductions are indicated in the third time slice.

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“…Although some work has already been carried out in the state of Minas Gerais (Ávila et al, 2014;Haddad et al 2011;Minuzzi et al 2010;Nunes et al 2018;Natividade et. al., 2017), southeastern Brazil, on changes in climate behavior in the last 50 years, in none of these were studied the extreme weather indices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Trends of Climate Indices Associated With Precipitation and Air Temperature in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Oliveira¹,

Mello

Marques

2020

ABClima

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the trends of four climatic extremes indices related to minimum and maximum air temperatures and three related to precipitation in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, from 1961 to 2010. These indices were developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) with the aim of subsidizing climate change on global, regional and local levels. Daily rainfall and temperature long-term series were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) for 47 municipalities, in different regions of the state. The analyzes were conducted considering the four seasons of the year based on the Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests. There was a significant trend towards change in the indices related to minimum (TNn; TNx) and maximum (TXn; TXx) temperatures all over the state. Precipitation indices (R10mm, R20mm and SDII) have showed no significant changes. The increase in the TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx has been observed in all seasons, except for autumn, and the TNx index in the winter. Both minimum and maximum temperatures indices have showed increase in greatest part of Minas Gerais in the spring, evidencing an expressive heating in this season and a premature summer onset. In the autumn, there was a downward trend in all temperature indices, characterizing an anticipation of winter. In winter, there was an upward trend in the TNn index and downward of the TNx in almost the entire state, indicating a reduction in the frost occurrence possibility, especially in the South and Southeast regions. The highest rates were observed in the Mid-west and Northwest regions. For the TXx index, in the summer there were upward trends throughout the state, especially in the North. Thus, important consequences to the agriculture planning and zoning have taken place as well as a proliferation of arbovirus diseases, affecting the life quality of the population

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Tendência dos Índices de Extremos Climáticos Observados e Projetados no Estado de Minas Gerais

Cited by 24 publications

References 39 publications

Balanço Hídrico Climatológico Para Itajubá-Mg: Cenário Atual E Projeções Climáticas

Balanço Hídrico Climatológico Para Itajubá-Mg: Cenário Atual E Projeções Climáticas

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrology of a Small Brazilian Headwater Catchment Using the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

Temporal Trends of Climate Indices Associated With Precipitation and Air Temperature in Minas Gerais, Brazil

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