Temporal trend of tuberculosis in Brazil

Melo, Márcio Cristiano de; Barros, Henrique; Donalísio, Maria Rita

doi:10.1590/0102-311x00081319

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…1 ), that there was a decrease in the cases of TB in the years 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2017, demonstrating a pronounced decrease in cases. This reduction in cases is consistent with the temporal trend of TB in Brazil, showing a fall in its incidence in the country’s geopolitical regions [ 27 , 39 , 40 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

et al. 2021

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Background The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a TB high endemic city. Methods This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results A total of 1620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusions The study evidenced a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow from that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability in the city next years, however it might have been aggravated by the pandemic. These findings are relevant to evidence the serious behavior and trends of TB in a high endemic scenario considering a context prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

et al. 2021

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“…The results of the study also showed, especially in the trend graphs (Figure 1), that there was a decrease in the cases of tuberculosis in the years 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019, demonstrating a pronounced decrease in cases. This reduction in cases is consistent with the temporal trend of tuberculosis in Brazil, showing a fall in its incidence in the country's geopolitical regions [26,38,39].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Andrade

Arroyo

Ramos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Objective: to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make forecasts in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. Method: This was a Time Series study, carried out in a municipality in the northeast of Brazil. Population was composed of tuberculosis cases among residents of the municipality, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to gender and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and predictions of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average – Seasonal ARIMA model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both genders, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend between the years 2002–2018, however, it is unlikely that there will be a significant fall in the disease before 2022.

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“…The Brazilian National Health System (SUS in Portuguese) may have contributed to this reduction by free access to tuberculosis diagnosis, treatment and adherence since 2003. 12 The service coverage index of primary health care in Brazil ranked the highest from 2000 to 2010 among the BRCIS, which might contribute to the quick control of tuberculosis mortality. 13 Another contributor to reduced tuberculosis mortality might be multisectoral interventions to address health and poverty issues.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

Zou¹,

Liu²,

Hay³

et al. 2022

eClinicalMedicine

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Temporal trend of tuberculosis in Brazil

Cited by 19 publications

References 18 publications

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by sex and age in a high endemic city in northeastern Brazil: where were we before the Covid-19 pandemic?

Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

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