Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility

Kunimitsu, Yoji; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika

doi:10.3390/su122410680

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(47 reference statements)

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“…For example, climate change is projected to rise agriculture prices [63,64]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global agricultural prices could increase up to 29% from the current levels by 2050 [65], which will aggravate financial burdens for food acquisition, particularly for net-importing countries [64]. Moreover, due to future climate change, many countries such as China [66], the United States [65], Bangladesh, and Myanmar [67] will suffer from decreases in crop production, while increases in precipitation and temperature will increase the yields and exports of wheat and rice in Kazakhstan [68].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global agricultural prices could increase up to 29% from the current levels by 2050 [65], which will aggravate financial burdens for food acquisition, particularly for net-importing countries [64]. Moreover, due to future climate change, many countries such as China [66], the United States [65], Bangladesh, and Myanmar [67] will suffer from decreases in crop production, while increases in precipitation and temperature will increase the yields and exports of wheat and rice in Kazakhstan [68]. The heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the world will change the relative competitive advantages in agricultural production, leading to significant adjustments of global grain trade patterns, and countries may experience the heterogeneous economic consequences depending on the position and the nodal relationship of each country in the global agricultural trade network [63].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

et al. 2021

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Trading systems are essential in promoting global food security. With the growing proportion of global food consumption obtained through international trade, the global food trade pattern has become increasingly complex over recent years. This study constructed a weighted global grain network using the trade data of 196 countries in 2000 and 2018 to explore the structure and evolution based on the complex network theory. We established that the global grain network was scale-free. There was significant heterogeneity among nodes, and the heterogeneity of the out-degree was greater than that of the in-degree. The global grain network has a significant core-periphery structure, with the United States, Japan, Mexico, Egypt, South Korea, and Colombia as the core countries. Thereafter, by applying the quadratic assignment procedure model to explore the driving factors of the global grain network, we established that geographical distance had a positive impact on the food trade patterns in 2000 and 2018. This differs from the classical gravity model theory. Furthermore, grain trade had significant “boundary effects”; economic gaps, resource endowment, and regional free trade agreements had a positive impact on the evolution of the grain trade network, whereas cultural similarity and political differences had a negative impact on the grain trade network pattern.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

et al. 2021

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“…The above results indicate that the factors influencing the global dairy trade network are highly complex and heterogeneous compared to other products. This paves potential directions for future research, such as climate and price factors [64][65][66]. Refining these studies enables the uncovering of the unique factors affecting the dairy trade.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Global Dairy Trade

et al. 2023

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There are imbalances and uncertainties in the global supply and demand of dairy products, owing to the adverse influence of overall economic changes, dairy prices, agricultural politics, the COVID-19 pandemic, and severe climate. This paper aims to explore the evolving characteristics and influencing factors of the global dairy trade pattern and make recommendations for the sustainable development of the global dairy trade. This paper studies the evolutionary characteristics of the global dairy trade pattern from the perspective of the overall structure, individual characteristics, and core–periphery structure through complex network analysis (CNA), using the countries involved in dairy trade from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, this study explores the influencing factors of the dairy trade network using a quadratic allocation procedure (QAP). The results indicate that the global dairy trade network has been expanding, with prominent scale-free features and small-world characteristics. Individual countries display obvious heterogeneity, whereas the core import regions of the dairy shift from Europe, East Asia, and America to North America, the Middle East, and East Asia. Contrary to this, there is no significant change in the core export regions. Consequently, the entire dairy trade network represents a clear core–periphery structure. Moreover, the income per capita gaps, geographic distance gaps, and common language always affect the trade value and dairy trade relations across the countries. Meanwhile, economic level gaps and regional trade agreements have become increasingly significant. Thus, the dairy trade may not follow the “border effect”. Lastly, this paper also extends recommendations for the sustainable development of the dairy trade.

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“…Coupled with institutional constraints and lack of technology, the adverse effects are expected to cause poverty and low crop productivity [62]. Systematic food insecurity arises when there is high price volatility emanating from interconnected global supply chain disruptions [63]. Disruptions can occur at any stage along the supply chain, thus at production, storage, processing, distribution, retail and markets, and also at the consumption stage [64].…”

Section: Agricultural Economic Growth and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

The Impacts of Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Economic Growth in South Africa: ARDL Approach

Tagwi

2022

Sustainability

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One of the most affected economies by climate change is the agricultural sector. Climate change measured by temperature and precipitation has an impact on agricultural output, which in turn affects the economy of the sector. It is anticipated that using renewable energy will lower carbon emissions that are directly related to climate change. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), renewable energy usage, and climate change on South Africa’s agricultural sector from 1972 to 2021. The nexus was estimated using an Auto Regressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test econometric technique. In the short run, findings indicated that climate change reduces agricultural economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions increase as agricultural economic growth increases. The use of renewable energy was insignificant in the short and long run. Carbon dioxide emissions granger causes temperature and renewable energy unilateral. An ARDL analysis was performed to evaluate the short and long-term relationship between agricultural economic growth, climate change, carbon dioxide emissions and renew able energy usage. The study adds new knowledge on the effects of climate change and carbon emissions on the agricultural economy alongside the use of renewable energy which can be used to inform economic policy on climate change and the energy nexus in the agricultural sector. Study findings point to the prioritization of biomass commercialization, rural and commercial farming sector bioenergy regulations and socioeconomic imperatives research is crucial in order to promote inclusive participation in the production of renewable energy.

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Systemic Risk in Global Agricultural Markets and Trade Liberalization under Climate Change: Synchronized Crop-Yield Change and Agricultural Price Volatility

Cited by 16 publications

References 33 publications

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Research on Global Grain Trade Network Pattern and Its Driving Factors

Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Global Dairy Trade

The Impacts of Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2) and Renewable Energy Consumption on Agricultural Economic Growth in South Africa: ARDL Approach

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