2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008gl036500
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Abstract: We used a high‐resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large‐scale… Show more

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Cited by 234 publications
(164 citation statements)
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“…Thus, the correct expression of the IAM is limited by the ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to capture regional-scale circulation [Ashfaq et al, 2009;Johnson et al, 2015;Knutti et al, 2017]. This has proven to be challenging, but the availability of higher-resolution modeling has substantially improved the representation of the IAM in climate model simulations [Delworth et al, 2012;Ma et al, 2014;Johnson et al, 2015;Li et al, 2015;Shields et al, 2016].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Thus, the correct expression of the IAM is limited by the ability of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to capture regional-scale circulation [Ashfaq et al, 2009;Johnson et al, 2015;Knutti et al, 2017]. This has proven to be challenging, but the availability of higher-resolution modeling has substantially improved the representation of the IAM in climate model simulations [Delworth et al, 2012;Ma et al, 2014;Johnson et al, 2015;Li et al, 2015;Shields et al, 2016].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Additionally, in 2011 the monsoon arrived on 6 May, which is about 7 days earlier than normal (Thai Meteorological Department 2011). This early onset is in contrast with the projected 15-day delay in monsoon onset in Southeast Asia for the twenty-first century (Ashfaq et al 2009;Loo et al 2015). As far as climate change is concerned, van Oldenborgh et al (2012) did not find any role of climate change in the 2011 flood as a result of the lack of significant trend in the monsoon precipitation in Thailand.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 63%
“…Atlantic climate variability and alternate ENSO indices linked to Northern Hemisphere monsoon circulation [e.g., Wang et al, 2014] might enhance the forecasting skills, but we found no statistically significant improvement with inclusion of other ENSO indices or the AMO as predictors. Changes to physical mechanisms that drive monsoon variability under a warmer climate in future [e.g., Ashfaq et al, 2009;Krishna Kumar et al, 2011] offer additional challenges to prediction.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%