Spatiotemporal trends of temperature extremes in Bangladesh under changing climate using multi-statistical techniques

Mallick, Javed; Islam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul; Ghose, Bonosri; Islam, H. M. Touhidul; Rana, Yousuf; Hu, Zhenghua; Bhat, Shakeel Ahmad; Pal, Subodh Chandra; Ismail, Zulhilmi

doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03828-1

Cited by 24 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 80 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…Future research might concentrate on how large-scale atmospheric circulations are connected to the increasing tendencies of MHWs, as revealed by some related studies [ 47 – 49 ]. Studies on heat waves in various countries and regions, including Portugal [ 50 ], the Middle East [ 51 ], Iran [ 52 ], Northeast China [ 53 ], Central Europe [ 54 ], Bangladesh [ 9 ], and the Sahel [ 55 ], have shown positive trends that are consistent with a warming of earth’s climate [ 56 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? Exploring causes of heat waves in a tropical country

Rahman,

Mannan,

Sarkar

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

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Heat waves significantly impact people’s lives and livelihoods and are becoming very alarming and recognized as hot topics worldwide, including in Bangladesh. However, much less is understood regarding recent hotspots, the frequency of heat waves over time, and their underlying causes in Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to explore the current scenario and frequency of heat waves and their possible causes across Bangladesh. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope techniques were used to determine seasonal and annual temperature trend patterns of heat wave frequencies. Daily maximum temperature datasets collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during 1991–2021 are applied. The frequency of days with Tmax≥ 36°C as the threshold was used to compute different types of heat waves based on the BMD’s operational definition. The results show that the mild heat wave (MHW) days followed the subsequent hotspot order: Rajshahi (103) > Chuadanga (79), Ishurdi (60), and Jessore (58), respectively. The frequency of days with Tmax≥36°C was persistence for many days in 2014, especially in the western part of Bangladesh compared to other parts. Similarly, the heat waves condition shown its deadliest event by increasing more days in 2021. The highest increasing trend was identified at the Patuakhali site, with a rate of 0.516 days/year, while the highest decreasing trend was noticed at the Chuadanga site, with a rate of -0.588 days/year. The frequency of days (Tmax≥36°C) is an increasing trend in the south-western part of Bangladesh. The synoptic condition in and around Bangladesh demonstrates that the entrance of heat waves in Bangladesh is due to the advection of higher temperatures from the south/southwest of the Bay of Bengal. The outcomes will guide the national appraisal of heatwave effects, shedding light on the primary causes of definite heatwave phenomena, which are crucial for developing practical adaptation tools.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? Exploring causes of heat waves in a tropical country

Rahman,

Mannan,

Sarkar

et al. 2024

PLoS ONE

Self Cite

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“…Trend analysis has been used to detect the impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration in the Kasem watershed. The Mann-Kendall test is a nonparametric test that does not require the data to follow normal distribution [51]:…”

Section: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Operation under Climate Change from Kesem Reservoir, Ethiopia

Mirani

Ayele

Lohani

et al. 2022

Advances in Meteorology

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Climate changes significantly cause the precipitation deficiency and in turn reduce the inflow amount in reservoir affecting hydroelectric power generation. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate hydropower generation and reservoir operation under climate change from Kesem reservoir. Recent Representative Pathway (RCP) scenarios were used to evaluate the impact of climate change on power generation. Power transformation equation and variance scaling approach were amalgamated to adjust the bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. Bias, root mean square error, and coefficient of variation were used to check the accuracy of projected rainfall. The base and future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation trend was analysed using the Mann–Kendall test. The flow calibration and validation were carried out by the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), and hydropower generation was evaluated with reservoir simulation model (MODSIM 8.1) under climate scenarios. The performance of the model was found good with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) of 0.72 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.73 for calibration and NSE of 0.74 and R2 of 0.75 for validation. Projected future climate scenarios predicted increasing and decreasing trend of temperature and precipitation, respectively. For RCP4.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation is likely to decrease by 0.64% and 0.82% in both short-term (2021–2050) and long-term (2051–2080), respectively. In case of RCP8.5 climate scenario, the average energy generation will be decreased by 1.06% and 1.35% for short-term and long-term, respectively. Remarkable reduction of energy generation was revealed in RCP8.5 with relation to RCP4.5 scenario. This indicates that there will be high energy fluctuation and decreasing trend in the future energy generation. The research finding is crucial for decision-makers, power authorities, governmental and nongovernmental organizations, and watershed management agencies to take care for sustainability in the future hydropower generation in the Kesem reservoir.

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“…It can directly or indirectly impact many aspects of society by potentially disrupting the normal natural balance and forcing the change of weather patterns [5]. Increasing temperature trends (warming), and other associated factors are threatening human existence, ecological communities, and socioeconomic development across the world [6]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global mean temperature had risen (global warming) about 0.85 (±0.2) °C from 1880 to 2012 [1,7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opportunities and Challenges of Spaceborne Sensors in Delineating Land Surface Temperature Trends: A Review

et al. 2023

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Understanding the land surface temperature (LST) trends is crucial for policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies suitable for a sustainable environment coping in the face of climate change. This article presents a systematic review of the studies related to delineating spaceborne sensor based LST trends, including information on the instruments and constellations of satellites (missions) that provide thermal infrared (TIR) and passive microwave (PMW) observations. About 99% of the studies used TIR, where 76% were MODIS (onboard Terra/Aqua) observations. Opportunities, challenges, and research gaps for using the TIR and PMW observations were also explored, with instruments onboard either polar-orbiting or geostationary satellites. We identified that calibrated dataset (e.g., processed, harmonized, and standardized) is extremely limited for each constellation, with multiple satellites and instruments, to make it fully useful for the entire mission period. A few problematic methodological concepts were identified, including using a few images in a longer time series. Using only a few images, acquired on different calendar months in different years, would not provide the true annual trends over the study period because they can be influenced by seasonal variations. To estimate the warming or cooling daytime, nighttime, or diurnal LST trends, the use of MODIS observations could be useful, even though it does not acquire images during the maximum or minimum temperature in a daily cycle. This article indicated further investigations into those research gaps and recommended directions to overcome most of these limitations.

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Spatiotemporal trends of temperature extremes in Bangladesh under changing climate using multi-statistical techniques

Cited by 24 publications

References 80 publications

Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? Exploring causes of heat waves in a tropical country

Are hotspots and frequencies of heat waves changing over time? Exploring causes of heat waves in a tropical country

Evaluation of Hydropower Generation and Reservoir Operation under Climate Change from Kesem Reservoir, Ethiopia

Opportunities and Challenges of Spaceborne Sensors in Delineating Land Surface Temperature Trends: A Review

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