Spatially explicit forecast of feedstock potentials for second generation bioconversion industry from the EU agricultural sector until the year 2030

Wietschel, Lars; Thorenz, Andrea; Tuma, Axel

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.072

Cited by 19 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 9 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…It is not excluded that future agronomic practices will adjust this rate [44], but in this study, it is considered constant over time. On the other hand, the methodology used in this study removes the limitation emphasized by Wietschel et al [32]. Wietschel et al [32] considered a constant RPR in their study, while in the present article a unique RPR for each year is used, and its development is estimated on the basis of past values.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…On the other hand, the methodology used in this study removes the limitation emphasized by Wietschel et al [32]. Wietschel et al [32] considered a constant RPR in their study, while in the present article a unique RPR for each year is used, and its development is estimated on the basis of past values. The motive of most of the research estimating post-harvest residue production is to quantify this production to determine the availability of biomass for energy purposes [21,37,45,46].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The use of a linear regression model for the prediction of future production presupposes a constant action of exogenous parameters. However, some phenomena, such as land use change or annual weather variations, are very difficult to predict [32]. The sustainable removal rate is also an important factor for sustainable agriculture.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…maximize seed yield, which is influenced by the same factors as the seed weight ratio and post-harvest residues [31]. In addition to predicting the production of post-harvest residues using time series analysis, studies have been published that consider complex factors affecting future production and identify the main drivers of post-harvest residue production [32,33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The Utilization of Crop Residues as Forest Protection: Predicting the Production of Wheat and Rapeseed Residues

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Deforestation is a global threat in the form of the reduction of all of the ecosystem services provided to humans by forest ecosystems. For this reason, this article deals with the protection of forest ecosystem services by searching for a substitute for wood biomass. In recent years, the post-harvest residues of agricultural crops have been used mainly for energy and material uses. If this raw material is to be used industrially in the long term, we must have an idea of its future production. In most studies, predictions of future post-harvest residue productions are resolved in terms of the availability for energy sectors. This paper deals with the total amount of produced post-harvest residues that can be taken from the field; the post-harvest residue production for selected sectors is not subtracted from the overall prediction. Post-harvest residue production was estimated using the residue to product ratio (RPR), wherein the RPR coefficient was calculated for the monitored crops in each year, and the post-harvest residue production was subsequently calculated in each year according to the conversion rate characteristic for each year. The production of two widespread agricultural crops—wheat and rapeseed—was predicted. Linear regression models were used for the estimations. Based on these models, we predict the production of 58.3 million tonnes of post-harvest wheat residues and 22.4 million tonnes of post-harvest rapeseed residues in 2030 in the European Union. In the Czech Republic, we predict the production of 1.8 million tonnes of post-harvest wheat residues and 1.3 million tonnes of post-harvest rapeseed residues. The presented results can be used as the basis for further considerations of the material use of post-harvest residues and for the substitution of wood with these residues.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Utilization of Crop Residues as Forest Protection: Predicting the Production of Wheat and Rapeseed Residues

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Bioenergy supply potentials tend to focus on one of the available biomass feedstock streams (i.e. Energy Crops [14,15], Forestry [16,17], Agricultural Residues [18,19] and waste streams [20]). In doing so, these studies are not able to determine the total bioenergy potential available to contribute to the future EU energy mix.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

EU bioenergy development to 2050

Mandley

Daioglou

Junginger

et al. 2020

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bioenergy is the EU's leading renewable energy source at present. Understanding bioenergy's contribution to the future EU energy mix is strategically relevant for mid to long term climate targets. This review consolidates recent projections of both supply and demand dynamics for EU bioenergy to 2050, drawing from resourcefocused, demand-driven and integrated assessment approaches. Projections are synthesised to identify absolute ranges, determine cohesion with policy and draw insights on the implications for the scale of development, trade and energy security. Supply side studies have undergone methodological harmonisation efforts in recent years. Despite this, due to assumptions on key uncertainties such as feedstock yields, technical potential estimates range from 9 to 25 EJyr-1 of EU domestically available biomass for energy in 2050. Demand side projections range between 5 and 19 EJyr-1 by 2050. This range is primarily due to variations in study assumptions on key influential developments such as economic competitivity of bioenergy, EU energy efficiency gains within the power sector, flexibility for meeting mitigation targets and technological portfolios. Upper bound technical supply estimates are able meet future demand wholly from the domestic resource base, holding the potential to reduce total EU primary energy import dependency 22% points from the current EU roadmap trajectory. However, due to part of this domestic resource base being deemed economically inaccessible or of insufficient quality, interregional imports are projected to increase from current 4% to 13-76%. Emergence of non-energy applications are projected to compete for at least 10% of the biomass needed to fulfil bioenergy demand in 2050.

show abstract

Mapping the environmental and techno‐economic potential of biojet fuel production from biomass residues in Brazil

Cervi

Lamparelli

Gallo

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study assesses the environmental potential of crop residues and the techno‐economic potential of biojet fuel (BJF) production in Brazil. Different production routes are evaluated from two types of biomass residues (sugarcane straw and eucalyptus harvest residue), and four different technological pathways (alcohol to jet, Fischer–Tropsch, hydrothermal liquefaction and pyrolysis). The environmental potential of biomass residues is determined utilizing spatio‐temporal projections of land‐use change in Brazil and by explicitly modeling the erosion risk and the soil organic carbon (SOC) balance spatially. The assessment of the techno‐economic potential of BJF production from the environmental potential of sugarcane straw (SCS) and eucalyptus harvest residues (EHRs) considers the BJF total costs, which result from a summation of biomass residue recovery costs, BJF conversion costs, and BJF transportation costs. These BJF total costs are compared with the range of fossil jet fuel prices at Brazilian airports to quantify the techno‐economic potential. The environmental potential of biomass residues varies from 70 Mt in 2015 to 102 Mt in 2030, with SCS being highly constrained by SOC, whereas EHRs are more constrained by the high erosion risk. These quantities can generate a techno‐economic BJF potential ranging from 0.45 EJ in 2015 (46 US$/GJ – 65 US$/GJ) to 0.67 EJ in 2030 (19 US$/GJ – 65 US$/GJ). In 2030, several BJF production routes can be competitive with fossil jet fuel prices. The northeast and southeast regions have the highest potential, especially in 2030. © 2020 The Authors. Biofuels, Bioproducts, and Biorefining published by Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

show abstract

Spatially explicit forecast of feedstock potentials for second generation bioconversion industry from the EU agricultural sector until the year 2030

Cited by 19 publications

References 9 publications

The Utilization of Crop Residues as Forest Protection: Predicting the Production of Wheat and Rapeseed Residues

The Utilization of Crop Residues as Forest Protection: Predicting the Production of Wheat and Rapeseed Residues

EU bioenergy development to 2050

Mapping the environmental and techno‐economic potential of biojet fuel production from biomass residues in Brazil

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About