Spatial validation of two simulation models: the example of timber plantations in Chile

Maestripieri, Nicolas; Paegelow, Martin

doi:10.4000/cybergeo.26042

Cited by 12 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Monoculture expansion follows a north-south gradient along the Pre-Costal Range (or Piedmont) with a high frequency of change (Echeverria et al, 2006;Paegelow et al, 2012). In San Juan de la Costa, plantations present the largest increase (+95%) between 1986 and 2008, covering almost 10,000 ha in 2008 (Maestripieri et al, 2013). These dynamics are driven by multiple processes and influenced by environmental, social, political, economic and technical factors operating on multiple levels.…”

Section: Land Use and Cover Changes (Lucc) Processes And Driving Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We discussed these values with the interviewees who determine the importance of comparing one factor to another. In addition, we analyzed the interactions between changes observed (for instance in native forest to timber plantation) and driving forces (land tenure, proximity to road, and so on) (Maestripieri and Paegelow, 2013 between factors (between AND and OR Boolean) (Fig. 5).…”

Section: Fig 4 Standardization Of Distance From Road Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even if scenarios are constructed on a communal scale, it is necessary to relocate these local dynamics within the trends of a regional and national context. Medium 115 (MODIS) (Paegelow et al, 2012) and high (LANDSAT) (Selleron, 2001;Maestripieri and Paegelow, 2013) resolution satellite imagery have been used for this. Indeed, the broad patterns observed at a regional scale do not highlight the multiplicity and complexity of variables which influence timber plantation dynamics (land tenure, topography, soil quality, land cover and road network) at the local level.…”

Section: Land Use and Cover Changes (Lucc) Processes And Driving Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Estimated changes are allocated using the MCE procedure to estimate the probability maps of the transitions from one land cover to another (Paegelow and Camacho Olmedo, 2005). The model is calibrated to the San Juan de la Costa study site using two supervised land cover classifications for 1986 (t 0 ) and 1999 (t 1 ) 210 and has been validated by comparing the 2008 simulation with an existing 2008 land cover map (t 2 ) (Maestripieri and Paegelow, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, in order to model the suitability values of plantations in our calibration model (Maestripieri and Paegelow, 2013), distance from road network (DRoNet) is standardized using a monotonically decreasing sigmoidal function with two control points established at 260 m (min) and 2900 m (max). These points are determined through retrospective analysis (between 1999 and 2008) using observed LUCC and their driving forces.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Maestripieri¹,

Houet²,

Paegelow³

et al. 2017

Futures

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Accounting for spatial issues (spatially explicit simulation, geographical amenities and advantages of land use 10 and cover changes, etc.) to build prospective scenarios is a crucial issue for better assessment of possible impacts on the environment. Such spatialized scenarios and their implications allow societies to reduce the uncertainty of the future by exploring various strategies for land use changes. Despite the wide diversity in existing scenariobuilding techniques, two different approaches can be distinguished (exploratory vs. normative) for their methodological implications. The originality in this study comes from the use of a relevant exploratory 15 (dynamic) approach to map normative scenarios which, in most cases, are represented throughout the combination of narratives and synchronic land use and cover maps. The objective of the article is to apply this dynamic exploratory simulation approach to spatialize normative scenarios within the framework of forest management in southern Chile. In the results, two contrasting images of the future are compared, with the preservation of native forests on one hand and the spread of exotic timber plantations on the other. 20

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Section: Land Use and Cover Changes (Lucc) Processes And Driving Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Fig 4 Standardization Of Distance From Road Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Land Use and Cover Changes (Lucc) Processes And Driving Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Maestripieri¹,

Houet²,

Paegelow³

et al. 2017

Futures

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Improving Business-as-Usual Scenarios in Land Change Modelling by Extending the Calibration Period and Integrating Demographic Data

Mejean

Paegelow

Saqalli

et al. 2019

Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography

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Land use and land cover change (LUCC) models are increasingly being used to anticipate the future of territories, particularly through the prospective scenario method. In the case of so-called trend or Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenarios, the aim is to observe the current dynamics and to extend them into the future. However, as they are implemented as baseline simulation in most current software packages, BAU scenarios are calibrated from a training period built from only two dates. We argue that this limits the quantitative estimation of future change intensity, and we illustrate it from a simple model of deforestation in Northern Ecuadorian Amazon using the Land Change Modeler (LCM) software package. This paper proposes a contribution to improve BAU scenarios calibration by mainly two enhancements: taking into account a longer calibration period for estimating change quantities and the integration of thematic data in change probabilities matrices. We thus demonstrate the need to exceed the linear construction of BAU scenarios as well as the need to integrate thematic and particularly socio-demographic data into the estimation of future quantities of change. The spatial aspects of our quantitative adjustments are discussed and tend to show that improvements in the quantitative aspects should not be dissociated from an improvement in the spatial allocation of changes, which may lead to a decrease in the predictive accuracy of the simulations.

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Modeling the Future Evolution of Chilean Forests to Guide Current Practices. Native Forest and Industrial Timber Plantations in Southern Chile

Maestripieri

Paegelow

Selleron

2017

Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios

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Scientific research builds projects and seeks to achieve specific goals that refer to the principles of scientific inference: deduction, induction and abduction. These inferences correspond to the time path of the prediction -which belongs to the world of rationality and accuracy -and scenarios -which transcribe the uncertain nature of the studied process and can describe, in some cases, a probable future, desirable or not. Because the conclusion of deductive inference stems from premises, predictive simulation must be the result of past observations. Optimization of these results requires a rigorous calibration of the model, in order to reproduce a known situation (past or present). Scenarios are not predictions. For exploratory scenarios (forecasting), plausible hypotheses are built from observed processes and can only be verified a posteriori. The scenario begins with a given situation in the present and moves forward into the future, responding to the question "What may happen if …?" The normative scenario (inductive inference) describes a probable or desirable (or undesirable) future and then moves backwards to the present, i.e. retrospectively. The attitude is proactive towards the future and responds to the question "How can a specific target be reached?" These inferences give rise to specific approaches in terms of modeling and simulation. By focusing on forest dynamics in the south of Chile, this paper presents an expert approach (multi-criteria evaluation with Markovian chains) to map predictive and exploratory scenarios. The results open up various interesting lines of discussion in terms of resource management and clearly show the importance of model calibration (choice of data and configuration) upstream of the simulation process.

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Spatial validation of two simulation models: the example of timber plantations in Chile

Cited by 12 publications

References 31 publications

Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Improving Business-as-Usual Scenarios in Land Change Modelling by Extending the Calibration Period and Integrating Demographic Data

Modeling the Future Evolution of Chilean Forests to Guide Current Practices. Native Forest and Industrial Timber Plantations in Southern Chile

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