Spatial-temporal potential exposure risk analytics and urban sustainability impacts related to COVID-19 mitigation: A perspective from car mobility behaviour

Abstract

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to the population and urban sustainability worldwide. The surge mitigation is complicated and associates many factors, including the pandemic status, policy, socioeconomics and resident behaviours. Modelling and analytics with spatial-temporal big urban data are required to assist the mitigation of the pandemic. This study proposes a novel perspective to analyse the spatial-temporal potential exposure risk of residents by capturing human behaviours based on spatial-temporal car park availability data. Near real-time data from 1,904 residential car parks in Singapore, a classical megacity, are collected to analyse car mobility and its spatial-temporal heat map. The implementation of the circuit breaker, a COVID-19 measure, in Singapore has reduced the mobility and heat (daily frequency of mobility) significantly at about 30.0%. It contributes to a 44.3%–55.4% reduction in the transportation-related air emissions under two scenarios of travelling distance reductions. Urban sustainability impacts in both environment and economy are discussed. The spatial-temporal potential exposure risk mapping with space-time interactions is further investigated via an extended Bayesian spatial-temporal regression model. The maximal reduction rate of the defined potential exposure risk lowers to 37.6% by comparison with its peak value. The big data analytics of changes in car mobility behaviour and the resultant potential exposure risks can provide insights to assist in (a) designing a flexible circuit breaker exit strategy, (b) precise management via identifying and tracing hotspots on the mobility heat map, and (c) making timely decisions by fitting curves dynamically in different phases of COVID-19 mitigation. The proposed method has the potential to be used by decision-makers worldwide with available data to make flexible regulations and planning.

More Is Not Enough: A Deeper Understanding of the COVID-19 Impacts on Healthcare, Energy and Environment Is Crucial

“…It is high time to rethink about the lockdown and its implementation and exit manner. Some strategies have the potential to improve the implementation and exit of lockdowns, such as the intelligent quarantine strategy [ 62 ], the responsible lockdown exit strategy [ 63 ] and the flexible local lockdown exit strategy [ 64 ]. Although the function of lockdown is well recognised from the perspective of COVID-19 mitigation, the non-flexible lockdown causes disorder to healthcare systems with the incorporation of other infectious diseases threatens the global energy and environmental sustainability.…”

COVID ‐19 pandemic facilitating energy transition opportunities

“…This means increased demand for plastics and consequently more energy for their production, 3 logistics and disposal. It might also mean a psychological move to private cars with a lower exposure risk after pandemics 4 . Related to that have been more stress paid to hygiene, which means more antiseptic and disinfection, 5 which again means more energy and consequently waste and effluents.…”

Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!

“…Therefore, if the circumstances of COVID-19 were prolonged in time, the consequences in terms of mobility and environment would limit the results obtained. Very recent research [59] on the impact of COVID-19 suggests significant reductions in both car mobility and pollutant emissions.…”