The Tamsui River watershed situated in Northern Taiwan provides a variety of water recreational opportunities such as riverbank park activities, fishing, cruising, rowing, sailing, and swimming. However, river water quality strongly affects water recreational quality. Moreover, the health of recreationists who are partially or fully exposed to polluted river water may be jeopardized. A river pollution index (RPI) composed of dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, and ammonia nitrogen is typically used to gauge the river water quality and regulate the water body use in Taiwan. The purpose of this study was to probabilistically determine the RPI categories in the Tamsui River watershed and to assess the urban water recreational quality on the basis of the estimated RPI categories. First, according to various RPI categories, one-dimensional indicator kriging (IK) was adopted to estimate the occurrence probabilities of the RPI categories. The maximum occurrence probability among the categories was then employed to determine the most suitable RPI category. Finally, the most serious categories and seasonal variations of RPI were adopted to evaluate the quality of current water recreational opportunities in the Tamsui River watershed. The results revealed that the midstream and downstream sections of the Tamsui River and its tributaries with poor river water quality afford low water recreational quality, and water recreationists should avoid full or limited exposure to these bodies of water. However, the upstream sections of the Tamsui River watershed with high river water quality are suitable for all water recreational activities.