Spatial and temporal drought projections of northwestern Turkey

Yeșilköy, Serhan; Şaylan, Levent

doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04029-0

Cited by 22 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Even in the current climatic conditions, Türkiye is a drought‐prone country and considerably vulnerable to desertification processes, especially in semi‐arid regions (Türkeş et al, 2020; Yeşilköy & Şaylan, 2022). According to future projections, the arid and semi‐arid regions will be severely impacted by serious land degradation and desertification, a decrease in groundwater, damage to vegetation and wetland ecosystems, a loss of biodiversity and food insecurity (Cramer et al, 2018; Gouveia et al, 2017; Keenan et al, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The rate of moderate and high drought (drought occurrence) in northwest Türkiye was 17.2%–30.3%, respectively, between 1971 and 2018, according to the SPEI‐12 and the self‐calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc‐PDSI). The results of SPEI‐12 and sc‐PDSI showed that the occurrence of drought would increase by 38.3%–35.3% in RCP 4.5 and 47–41% in RCP 8.5 for the years 2051–2099, respectively (Yeşilköy & Şaylan, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the past decades, studies related to drought conditions and projected future (up to 2100) changes have shown that Türkiye will be most influenced by the adverse impacts of projected climate change, suggesting an increase in drought frequency and severity as Mediterranean Basin (Önol & Ünal, 2014;Türkeş et al, 2020;Türkes ¸et al, 2016;Yeşilköy & Şaylan, 2022). For instance, using reference and future (2071-2100) climate simulations produced by ICTP-Reg-CM3, a precipitation amount decrease of 24% has been shown to be significant over the southeastern part of Türkiye for winter (Önol & Ünal, 2014(Önol & Ünal, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2%-30.3%, respectively, between 1971 and 2018, according to the SPEI-12 and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (sc-PDSI). The results of SPEI-12 and sc-PDSI showed that the occurrence of drought would increase by 38. for the years 2051-2099, respectively (Yeşilköy & Şaylan, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Yavaşlı,

Erlat

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change can alter the spatial and temporal distribution of aridity around the world through a combination of factors such as reduced precipitation, rising temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration. Especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change due to a significant reduction in precipitation compared to other land regions in all climate models operated under different scenarios. Despite numerous studies on aridity trends, few have focused specifically on Türkiye and considered a comprehensive range of aridity indices and scenarios. This study aims to fill this research gap by providing a more detailed understanding of future aridity trends in Türkiye under various climate change scenarios and using multiple aridity indices. A novelty of this study lies in the simultaneous examination of three aridity indices (PCI, EAI and UNEP AI) for Türkiye, allowing for a more comprehensive assessment of future aridity trends. Furthermore, this study considers three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate the potential range of climate change impacts on aridity in Türkiye. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to determine the changes in aridity conditions in Türkiye until the end of the 21st century. We used three aridity indices: the Pinna combinative index, the Erinç aridity index and the UNEP aridity index. These indices were calculated for the baseline period of 1981–2010 using gridded data (CHELSA) and for the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 using three climate models (GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and IPSL‐CM6A‐LR) and multi‐model means with three SSPs to represent different future scenarios. The results showed that all three indices indicate an increase in dry climate conditions in Türkiye after 2041, with particularly notable increases expected in Central Anatolia, Southeastern Anatolia and parts of the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as eastern parts of Eastern Anatolia and the inner Aegean region. Under the SSP3‐7.0 scenario, the expansion of semi‐arid and arid areas is predicted to cover more than 30% of the country by the end of the century (2071–2100). This increase in aridity could increase the region's vulnerability to climate change and the risk of desertification, which should be taken into consideration in national water management and planning.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Yavaşlı,

Erlat

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Onol and Unal (2014) found that the Marmara and Aegean regions have the highest summer temperature changes of 5°C compared to other regions in Türkiye. Similarly, drought occurrence in northwestern Türkiye is predicted to increase by 47%–41% under the RCP8.5 scenario for the years 2051–2099 (Yeşilköy & Şaylan, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Convection‐permitting climate simulations with COSMO‐CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario

Sonuç

Ünal

İncecik

2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The performance of the climate simulations by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM forced by MPI-ESM-LR, as well as projected future temperature and precipitation conditions over northwestern Türkiye at the convection-permitting resolution, are shown in this study. In terms of mean, maximum and minimum temperatures and daily total precipitation, the model response was examined. Comparisons with observations were made on an annual and seasonal basis. The convection-permitting model (0.0275 ) provides a satisfactory representation of annual and seasonal mean temperatures according to bias, MAE and RMSE. Better results were found for precipitation with respect to RE, MAE and RMSE. Finally, we used the RCP8.5 emission scenario to investigate future climate changes in terms of average temperature and precipitation variations for northwestern Türkiye, including Istanbul, over two projection periods (2041-2060 and 2071-2090) compared to the reference period (1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005). The model predicts significant warming in northwestern Türkiye, particularly in Istanbul and its environs, by the end of the century, as well as a general decrease in precipitation, especially evident in the spring and summer. The findings of this study can be used to develop climate adaptation policies based on temperature and precipitation variables in and around the study area.

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Crop yield prediction based on reanalysis and crop phenology data in the agroclimatic zones

Yeşilköy,

Demir

2024

Theor Appl Climatol

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Spatial and temporal drought projections of northwestern Turkey

Cited by 22 publications

References 67 publications

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Climate model projections of aridity patterns in Türkiye: A comprehensive analysis using CMIP6 models and three aridity indices

Convection‐permitting climate simulations with COSMO‐CLM over northwestern Türkiye under the RCP8.5 scenario

Crop yield prediction based on reanalysis and crop phenology data in the agroclimatic zones

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