Spatial and intraseasonal variation in changing susceptibility to extreme heat in the United States

Spangler, Keith R.; Wellenius, Gregory A.

doi:10.1097/ee9.0000000000000136

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…While trends are important for assessing medium‐ and long‐term risks, the timing of extreme events also affects their impacts in a variety of essential ways. For example, subseasonal temporal compounding influences health outcomes and societal response capacity (Baldwin et al., 2019; Margolis, 2014; Spangler & Wellenius, 2021). Additionally, risks vary substantially between locations, with those that rarely see heat stress most strongly affected when it does occur (Guirguis et al., 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions

Speizer

Raymond

Ivanovich

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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Extreme heat can have substantial consequences for human health, especially when paired with humidity Di Napoli et al., 2019;Foster et al., 2021). The majority of heat dissipation necessary for human thermoregulation occurs through evaporative cooling via sweating (Gagnon & Crandall, 2018), rendering extreme humid heat more physiologically stressful than extreme temperature alone (Vanos & Grundstein, 2020). Humid heat extremes are rapidly increasing in frequency (Raymond et al., 2020;Rogers et al., 2021), and are projected to continue to intensify in the warming climate (Coffel et al., 2018), significantly increasing exposure to dangerous levels of humid heat.Various indices are used to quantify the combined impact of temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb temperature (TW) is a particularly useful metric, as it establishes a maximum tolerable intensity of humid heat at about 35°C (Sherwood & Huber, 2010). This survivability limit applies to healthy individuals under optimal external conditions (e.g., in full shade, with access to unlimited drinking water) (Raymond et al., 2020;Sherwood & Huber, 2010). Thus, substantial health effects-including mortality-occur at far lower TW values Raymond et al., 2020;Vecellio et al., 2022). Even less extreme magnitudes of humid heat can cause a variety of societal impacts, such as decreased economic productivity associated with limitations on outdoor labor or increased energy demand due to the need for artificial cooling (e.g.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions

Speizer

Raymond

Ivanovich

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Seasonality was adjusted for using a natural cubic spline with 4 degrees of freedom (df) of the day of the year, and an interaction between this spline term and year allowed for different seasonal trends across the study period [38][39][40][41]. In order to control long-term trends, the model also included a natural spline function of time with approximately 1 df for every 10 years.…”

Section: Study Design and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Association between High Ambient Temperatures and Road Crashes in an Australian City with Temperate Climate: A Time-Series Study, 2012–2021

Varghese

et al. 2023

IJERPH

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(1) Background: High ambient temperatures are associated with increased morbidity and mortality rates, and some evidence suggests that high temperatures increase the risk of road crashes. However, little is known regarding the burden of road crashes attributable to no-optimal high temperatures in Australia. Therefore, this study examined the effects of high temperatures on road crashes using Adelaide in South Australia as a case study. (2) Methods: Ten-year daily time-series data on road crashes (n = 64,597) and weather during the warm season (October–March) were obtained between 2012 and 2021. A quasi-Poisson distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the cumulative effect of high temperatures over the previous five days. The associations and attributable burden at moderate and extreme temperature ranges were computed as relative risk (RR) and attributable fraction. (3) Results: There was a J-shaped association between high ambient temperature and the risk of road crashes during the warm season in Adelaide, and pronounced effects were observed for minimum temperatures. The highest risk was observed at a 1 day lag and lasting for 5 days. High temperatures were responsible for 0.79% (95% CI: 0.15–1.33%) of road crashes, with moderately high temperatures accounting for most of the burden compared with extreme temperatures (0.55% vs. 0.32%). (4) Conclusions: In the face of a warming climate, the finding draws the attention of road transport, policy, and public health planners to design preventive plans to reduce the risk of road crashes attributable to high temperatures.

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“…To overcome the limitations of available in situ station data, researchers have developed various gridded weather data and reanalysis products, as well as several methods to calculate heat stress measures with these products (Bernard & Iheanacho, 2015 ; Brimicombe et al., 2023 ; Dimiceli et al., 2011 ; Liljegren et al., 2008 ; Spangler & Wellenius, 2021 ; Stull, 2011 ; Yaglou & Minaed, 1957 ). Among the various estimation methods for WBGT, the method proposed by Liliegren (WBGT Liljegren ) has been considered the most robust under outdoor conditions (Bernard & Iheanacho, 2015 ; Kong & Huber, 2022 ; Lemke et al., 2019 ; Patel et al., 2013 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States

Ahn,

Tuholske,

Parks

2024

GeoHealth

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Climate change is escalating the threat of heat stress to global public health, with the majority of humans today facing increasingly severe and prolonged heat waves. Accurate weather data reflecting the complexity of measuring heat stress is crucial for reducing the impact of extreme heat on health worldwide. Previous studies have employed Heat Index (HI) and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) metrics to understand extreme heat exposure, forming the basis for heat stress guidelines. However, systematic comparisons of meteorological and climate data sets used for these metrics and the related parameters, like air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation crucial for human thermoregulation, are lacking. We compared three heat measures (HImax, WBGTBernard, and WBGTLiljegren) approximated from gridded weather data sets (ERA5‐Land, PRISM, Daymet) with ground‐based data, revealing strong agreement from HI and WBGTBernard (R2 0.76–0.95, RMSE 1.69–6.64°C). Discrepancies varied by Köppen‐Geiger climates (e.g., Adjusted R2 HImax 0.88–0.95, WBGTBernard 0.79–0.97, and WBGTLiljegren 0.80–0.96), and metrological input variables (Adjusted R2 Tmax 0.86–0.94, Tmin 0.91–0.94, Wind 0.33, Solarmax 0.38, Solaravg 0.38, relative humidity 0.51–0.74). Gridded data sets can offer reliable heat exposure assessment, but further research and local networks are vital to reduce measurement errors to fully enhance our understanding of how heat stress measures link to health outcomes.

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Spatial and intraseasonal variation in changing susceptibility to extreme heat in the United States

Abstract: Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Cited by 8 publications

References 36 publications

Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions

Concentrated and Intensifying Humid Heat Extremes in the IPCC AR6 Regions

Association between High Ambient Temperatures and Road Crashes in an Australian City with Temperate Climate: A Time-Series Study, 2012–2021

Comparing Approximated Heat Stress Measures Across the United States

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