Socio-economic and demographic determinants of fertility in six selected Pacific Island Countries: An empirical study

Abstract

In this study, we seek to perform macro analysis of fertility in a panel of 6 selected Pacific Island Countries (PICs, hereafter). The macro analysis with secondary data, mostly obtained from World Bank database, stretched over the period 1990–2019 was stacked randomly in a balanced panel set-up, within which the most preferred fixed effect model is used for multivariate analysis. Pooled OLS and Random effect estimation techniques were applied for comparing results. Categories such as women’s empowerment, health, connectivity and cost of living were used to classify proxy variables as regressors for fertility determination. The results indicate variables such as contraceptive prevalence rate, female labour force participation rate and consumer price index (inflation) are negatively correlated with fertility at 1% level, while urbanisation is negatively correlated with fertility rate only at 10% significance level. Real GDP has negative relationship with fertility, however it is not statistically significant. Variables that are positively correlated with fertility but hold limited to no significance effects are female secondary enrolment, female population, mobile subscription and infant mortality rate. It is implied that those variables that are negatively associated with fertility, as well as Real GDP will be the major drivers for achieving replacement level fertility in the long run.

A Comparative Assessment of the Urbanization – Fertility Nexus in Most Urbanized Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa

“…The analysis identified among other factors that urbanization has played an influential role in attitudinal change in favour of small family size. Investigating socioeconomic determinants of fertility decision in Pacific Island countries recently, Lal et al (2021) found that urbanization amongst other factors account for decline in fertility in the region.…”

“…To investigate the possible relationship between urbanization process and female decision to give birth in Nigeria and South Africa, we used annual data collected between 1981 and 2019. Following notable research which had investigated the macroeconomic determinants of fertility rates such as Amarante (2014), Khan and Tehseen (2017), Kashepoor (2018) and Lal et al (2021, we proxy the dependent variable as total fertility rate (TFR) while we adopted urban population growth rate as a measure of degree of urbanization. In order to avoid estimation error that may arise from misspecification of regression model, empirical analyses of cause-effect relationship must control for the effect of other variables that may be correlated with the dependent variable.…”

Role of women's empowerment in determining fertility and reproductive health in Bangladesh: a systematic literature review

“…The literature reveals that fertility is influenced by various factors, including social, economic, demographic, and cultural aspects. 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 It is evident that the empowerment of women is a robust predictor of fertility in developed and developing countries. 27 , 28 , 29 According to Zeba and Kazi 30 who examined the data of 1036 Pakistani women, mobility was positively correlated with births within the last 5 years but negatively correlated with cumulative fertility.…”