Socio-economic analysis of short-term trends of COVID-19: modeling and data analytics

Jai, Mostapha El; Zhar, Mehdi; Ouazar, Driss; Akhrif, Iatimad; Saidou, Nourddin

doi:10.1186/s12889-022-13788-4

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 61 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Taken together, all these negative manifestations lead to a decline in performance, by undermining medical productivity, especially in less developed countries. Financial expenses in the public sector call for a detailed oversight to properly balance inputs and outputs [ 29 , 43 ]. Moreover, in times of crisis, adequate management is required, which does not allow for even greater deviations in terms of wasting resources.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Given that the right to life is universal, an approach by which states in difficulty in procuring vaccines be supported should be found. By reporting to the level of development of a country, some studies have shown that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita influences the COVID-19 spread and vaccination of the population [ 24 – 29 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

Lupu

Ţigănaşu

2023

BMC Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background Global crises, regardless of the place where they started to spread or of the factors that triggered them, require a comprehensive approach, primarily based on good communication, cooperation and mutual support. No individual and no institution should remain indifferent to crises but, on the contrary, be fully aware that any involvement in curbing them matters. Although humanity can be affected by various types of crises, in this paper we refer to the one related to COVID-19 pandemic. There are certain reasons that come to justify our choice: first of all, being a shock with a strong impact on people, its analysis should be performed from several angles; this may bring to light an image with its disparate propagation and measures to counteract it both in developed countries, and especially in those with a shortage of resources. Secondly, in the context of the emergence of vaccines against COVID-19, it is helpful to have an overview of COVID-19 through the lens of the relationship between the vaccination process and the elements that characterize governance, with a differentiated dashboard by country categories worldwide: low, middle and high-income countries. Our study is far from capturing the complexity arising from such social problem, but rather aims to outline the defining role of governance when it comes to providing firm reactions to the COVID-19 crisis. Methods Given that our sample consists of a large number of countries, namely 170, first, examined all together, and then, split into three groups (high, middle and low-income), it is challenging to address governance in association with COVID-19 vaccination, in order to see how much they interact and how each of the six aggregate governance indicators of the World Bank (Worldwide Governance Indicators) is reflected in this process. Even if they do not oscillate strongly over relatively short periods of time, reporting on health issues requires a sequential inventory, considering closer time intervals, so as to be able to act promptly. Thus, to better distinguish how the COVID-19 vaccination process evolved in low, middle and high-income countries, but also how it was imprinted by governance, we present the situation quarterly (March, June, September and December), in 2021, the year when the immunization campaigns were the most intense at the global level. Regarding the applied methods, we mention both OLS regressions with robust estimators and a panel model, used to investigate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination, some of them describing the good governance, as well as other dimensions. Results The findings point out that the influence of governance on COVID-19 vaccination differs depending on whether a country belongs to high, middle or low-income typology: the strongest determinism of governance on vaccination is encountered in high-income countries, and the weakest in low-income ones; in some cases, governance does not matter significantly. However, exploring the three groups of states included in the research, it is observed that the most relevant factors in this relationship are government effectiveness, regulatory quality and control of corruption. Conclusions Besides the order of importance of governance indicators on COVID-19 vaccination, our study indicates that, overall, governance positively shapes the vaccination rate at the level of the chosen sample. In normative terms, these findings can be translated particularly by the fact that they can serve as information to raise awareness on the relevance of the existence of an institutional framework that allows the formulation of strategies according to the patterns of each country, especially since the actionable tools depend on the available resources. As a general conclusion, public policies should be designed in such a way as to strengthen trust in vaccination regulations and in governments, to reduce the multifaceted negative effects of this health crisis and to hope for its total end.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

Lupu

Ţigănaşu

2023

BMC Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Finally, the estimation of the optimal number of clusters k * can be carried out by means of a change-point algorithm. In this paper, a Point-Wise-Procedure (PWP) algorithm was adopted to catch the optimal number of clusters, PWP algorithm was developed by [31] in order to select change-points by means of the inferential analysis procedure of the fitting error of a given set of point. Other reliable change-point procedures can be exploited for this purpose apart the PWP heuristic.…”

Section: Inference Statistics Of 𝝉 * and Main Workflow Of The Gic Heu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Geometry-Inference based Clustering Heuristic: A New kmeans initialization technique for Gaussian data and Experimental Proof of concept

Khattabi,

Jai,

Lahmadi

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Kmeans is one of the most algorithms that are utilized in data analysis adopting a variety of different metrics; but kmeans was shown to be sensitive to sensitive to the initialization step. Hence, in this paper, a new Geometry-Inference based Clustering heuristic is proposed for selecting the optimal numbers of clusters for kmeans of in other terms, the algorithm initialization. The conceptual approach proposes the “Initial speed rate” as the main geometric parameter to be statistically analysed. The distributions of this latter are then fitted using classical parametric probability distributions. The resulting fitted parameters show salient 2-stages linear behaviour according to the number of clusters within the kmeans process. Thus, the optimal number of clusters k* was assigned to the intersection of the 2 detected lines for all datasets adopted in this work. The benchmark analysis showed that the proposed heuristic is very competitive compared to other kmeans classical metrics.

show abstract

“…The classical pandemic models, first of all SIR, SEIR and SIRD, have been extensively used in the modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to understand and predict the transmission dynamics of the disease (see, e.g., [16][17][18][19][20][21]). In particular, these models and their variants can be used to estimate key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19, such as the basic reproduction number R 0 (see, e.g., [18,22,23]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reaction–Diffusion Equations in Mathematical Models Arising in Epidemiology

Davydovych,

Dutka,

Cherniha

2023

Symmetry

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The review is devoted to an analysis of mathematical models used for describing epidemic processes. Our main focus is on the models that are based on partial differential equations (PDEs), especially those that were developed and used for the COVID-19 pandemic modeling. Most of our attention is given to the studies in which not only results of numerical simulations are presented but analytical results as well. In particular, traveling fronts (waves), exact solutions, and the estimation of key epidemic parameters of the epidemic models with governing PDEs (typically reaction–diffusion equations) are discussed. The review may serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in the field of mathematical modeling in epidemiology.

show abstract

Socio-economic analysis of short-term trends of COVID-19: modeling and data analytics

Cited by 7 publications

References 61 publications

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

COVID-19 vaccination and governance in the case of low, middle and high-income countries

Geometry-Inference based Clustering Heuristic: A New kmeans initialization technique for Gaussian data and Experimental Proof of concept

Reaction–Diffusion Equations in Mathematical Models Arising in Epidemiology

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About