Small Area Estimates of the Population Distribution by Ethnic Group in England: A Proposal Using Structure Preserving Estimators

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of producing small area estimates of Ethnicity by Local Authority in England. A Structure Preserving approach is proposed, making use of the Generalized Structure Preserving Estimator. In order to identify the best way to use the available aggregate information, three fixed effects models with increasing levels of complexity were tested. Finite Population Mean Square Errors were estimated using a bootstrap approach. However, more complex models did not perform substantially better than simpler ones. A mixed-effects approach does not seem suitable for this particular application because of the very small sample sizes observed in many areas. Further research on a more flexible fixed-effects estimator is proposed.

Marginal-Preserving Imputation of Three-Way Array Data in Nested Structures, with Application to Small Areal Units

“…There are numerous strategies for this problem, ranging from simpler strategies such as uniform imputation (completely uninformed at the small geographic unit) or spatial smoothing techniques such as kriging that attempt to flexibly exploit spatial autocorrelation across units (Bennett, Haining, and Griffith 1984; Mooney et al 2020), to more informed model-based approaches (Cohen and Zhang 1988; Steinberg 1979). Related to this work, some researchers have specifically examined maintaining structural constraints and the use of model assisted approaches (Espuny-Pujol, Morrissey, and Williamson 2018; Luna et al 2015; Moretti and Whitworth 2020).…”

Intercensal Updating Using Structure-Preserving Methods and Satellite Imagery

“…The literature on SPREE methodology can be roughly summarized into three groups: (a) original SPREE as defined by Purcell and Kish (1980) and the proposal of Noble et al (2002) to formulate SPREE under the generalized linear model (GLM) framework, (b) SPREE extensions focused on bias reduction as suggested by Zhang and Chambers (2004) and later extended by Luna (2016) through incorporating cell-specific random effects and informative sampling design and (c) SPREE extensions to account for situations where the variable of interest is not available in the census (Isidro et al, 2016). As far as we know, the only work that uses additional sources of information besides one census, survey data and population projections is Luna et al, 2015 who consider a second census composition for updating ethnicity categories by age groups in England in 2011. While the population census provided information for all age groups, a scholar census offered better information for children between 5 and 15 years old.…”

“…The structure‐preserving estimation (SPREE) method has been widely used to produce intercensal estimates for disaggregated population counts (Purcell & Kish, 1980). Unemployment (Luna et al, 2015), occupational classification (Hidiroglou & Lavallee, 2009) and poverty estimation (Isidro et al, 2016) are examples of the application of this method and its extensions. In SPREE, disaggregated postcensal estimates are generated by updating the margins (called the allocation structure ) of a census composition (called the association structure ).…”

Intercensal updating using structure-preserving methods and satellite imagery

“…The literature on SPREE methodology can be roughly summarised into three groups: a) original SPREE as defined by Purcell and Kish (1980) and the proposal of Noble et al (2002) to formulate SPREE under the generalized linear model (GLM) framework, b) SPREE extensions focused on bias reduction as suggested by Zhang and Chambers (2004) and later extended by Luna (2016) through incorporating cell-specific random effects and informative sampling design and c) SPREE extensions to account for situations where the variable of interest is not available in the census (Isidro et al (2016)). As far as we know, the only work that uses additional sources of information besides one census, survey data, and population projections is Luna et al (2015) who consider a second census composition for updating ethnicity categories by age groups in England in 2011. While the population census provided information for all age groups, a scholar census offered better information for children between five and 15 years old.…”

“…The structure preserving estimation (SPREE) method has been widely used to produce intercensal estimates for disaggregated population counts (Purcell and Kish (1980)). Unemployment (Luna et al (2015)), occupational classification (Hidiroglou and Lavallee (2009)) and poverty estimation (Isidro et al (2016)) are examples of the application of this method and its extensions. In SPREE, disaggregated postcensal estimates are generated by updating the margins (called the allocation structure) of a census composition (called the association structure).…”