Simulation of subsurface heat and water dynamics, and runoff generation in mountainous permafrost conditions, in the Upper Kolyma River basin, Russia

Semenova, O.; Lebedeva, Liudmila; Vinogradov, Yury

doi:10.1007/s10040-012-0936-1

Cited by 45 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…No calibration from streamflow was used in setting any parameters in the model, but the results of extensive scientific investigations of basin snow and hydrology were used where available and applicable. This is one of the first demonstrations of successful multivariate, multi-scale prediction of basin hydrology without any calibration from streamflow in a cold regions mountain environment and adds to the evidence provided by the approaches of Semenova et al (2013) to parameterisation from basin understanding rather than calibration that are viable in these environments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

“…The model processes and physics appear to have simulated the hydrological cycle well and shown better prediction at the largest scale of evaluation. Using the approaches shown by Kuchment et al (2000) and Semenova et al (2013), parameters developed at Marmot Creek can be transferred to other basins for predictive purposes. Additional falsifying model simulations were instructive in demonstrating the importance and appropriateness of current model parameterisations for the Marmot Creek basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering these issues, the objectives of this paper are the following: (1) to propose a comprehensive physically based model to simulate all the relevant hydrological processes for a headwater basin of the Canadian Rocky Mountains; (2) to evaluate the model performance against the field observations, including winter snow accumulation, spring snowmelt, spring and summer soil moisture fluctuation, streamflow discharge, and groundwater level fluctuation without any parameter calibration from streamflow records. Estimation of unmeasured model parameters is not by calibration to observed streamflow but by regionalisation based on detailed process research in environmentally similar regions or in the basin itself, as proposed by Kuchment et al (2000) and demonstrated in cold regions mountains by Semenova et al (2013), where model structure is chosen based on analyses of runoff generation processes at a research basin. It is expected that this will not only assess our understanding of hydrology in this environment, but substantially advance the practice of hydrological prediction for ungauged basins, and provide a predictive tool that is sufficiently robust for describing hydrological responses in nonstationary environments.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Fang

Pomeroy

Ellis

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

113

151

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Abstract.One of the purposes of the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) is to diagnose inadequacies in the understanding of the hydrological cycle and its simulation. A physically based hydrological model including a full suite of snow and cold regions hydrology processes as well as warm season, hillslope and groundwater hydrology was developed in CRHM for application in the Marmot Creek Research Basin (∼ 9.4 km 2 ), located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Parameters were selected from digital elevation model, forest, soil, and geological maps, and from the results of many cold regions hydrology studies in the region and elsewhere. Non-calibrated simulations were conducted for six hydrological years during the period 2005-2011 and were compared with detailed field observations of several hydrological cycle components. The results showed good model performance for snow accumulation and snowmelt compared to the field observations for four seasons during the period 2007-2011, with a small bias and normalised root mean square difference (NRMSD) ranging from 40 to 42 % for the subalpine conifer forests and from 31 to 67 % for the alpine tundra and treeline larch forest environments. Overestimation or underestimation of the peak SWE ranged from 1.6 to 29 %. Simulations matched well with the observed unfrozen moisture fluctuation in the top soil layer at a lodgepole pine site during the period 2006-2011, with a NRMSD ranging from 17 to 39 %, but with consistent overestimation of 7 to 34 %. Evaluations of seasonal streamflow during the period 2006-2011 revealed that the model generally predicted well compared to observations at the basin scale, with a NRMSD of 60 % and small model bias (1 %), while at the sub-basin scale NRMSDs were larger, ranging from 72 to 76 %, though overestimation or underestimation for the cumulative seasonal discharge was within 29 %. Timing of discharge was better predicted at the Marmot Creek basin outlet, having a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.58 compared to the outlets of the sub-basins where NSE ranged from 0.2 to 0.28. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.15 and 0.17 for comparisons between the simulated groundwater storage and observed groundwater level fluctuation at two wells indicate weak but positive correlations. The model results are encouraging for uncalibrated prediction and indicate research priorities to improve simulations of snow accumulation at treeline, groundwater dynamics, and small-scale runoff generation processes in this environment. The study shows that improved hydrological cycle model prediction can be derived from improved hydrological understanding and therefore is a model that can be applied for prediction in ungauged basins.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Fang

Pomeroy

Ellis

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

113

151

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The process-based hydrological model Hydrograph with observable parameters (Vinogradov et al 2011, Semenova et al 2013) was applied in the study. It is a distributed model of runoff generation processes describing all essential components of the land hydrological cycle including precipitation interception; thermo-dynamic modelling of snow accumulation and melt; representation of soil and vegetation cover and evapotranspiration; surface flow and infiltration; soil water dynamics; heat dynamics and phase change in soil layers; subsurface flow, hillslope and channel flow and routing.…”

Section: Hydrograph Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The model concepts and approaches were verified at numerous basins in Russia, USA, Europe and Canada (Lebedeva and Semenova 2011, Vinogradov et al 2011, Semenova et al 2013.…”

Section: Hydrograph Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of hydrological response of a small Mediterranean watershed to fire by data analysis and a modelling approach

2014

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Data analysis and amodelling approach were used to detect the changes in hydrological regime in the Rimbaud watershed (France) after the fire in 1990. It was revealed that the increase of peak discharges was only observed during three years after the fire in the wet period of the year, at an hourly time scale. The Hydrograph model was applied for continuous runoff simulations at an hourly time step for the period 1967-2004. The parameters assessed for pre-fire conditions and used without change for the post-fire period satisfactorily fit the whole period of simulations with mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.52. The set of model parameters representing the post-fire conditions of changing environment was developed. Based on newly estimated parameters, the efficiency of simulations of selected outstanding flood peaks was improved. However, overall model representation for the post-fire period (1990)(1991)(1992) has declined. It is concluded that discernible fire impact is only localized on separate floods events and that it has a nonlinear character.

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Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges

et al. 2016

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Terrestrial hydrology is central to the Arctic system and its freshwater circulation. Water transport and water constituents vary, however, across a very diverse geography. In this paper, which is a component of the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis, we review the central freshwater processes in the terrestrial Arctic drainage and how they function and change across seven hydrophysiographical regions (Arctic tundra, boreal plains, shield, mountains, grasslands, glaciers/ice caps, and wetlands). We also highlight links between terrestrial hydrology and other components of the Arctic freshwater system. In terms of key processes, snow cover extent and duration is generally decreasing on a pan-Arctic scale, but snow depth is likely to increase in the Arctic tundra. Evapotranspiration will likely increase overall, but as it is coupled to shifts in landscape characteristics, regional changes are uncertain and may vary over time. Streamflow will generally increase with increasing precipitation, but high and low flows may decrease in some regions. Continued permafrost thaw will trigger hydrological change in multiple ways, particularly through increasing connectivity between groundwater and surface water and changing water storage in lakes and soils, which will influence exchange of moisture with the atmosphere. Other effects of hydrological change include increased risks to infrastructure and water resource planning, ecosystem shifts, and growing flows of water, nutrients, sediment, and carbon to the ocean. Coordinated efforts in monitoring, modeling, and processing studies at various scales are required to improve the understanding of change, in particular at the interfaces between hydrology, atmosphere, ecology, resources, and oceans.

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Simulation of subsurface heat and water dynamics, and runoff generation in mountainous permafrost conditions, in the Upper Kolyma River basin, Russia

Cited by 45 publications

References 21 publications

Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Multi-variable evaluation of hydrological model predictions for a headwater basin in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Estimation of hydrological response of a small Mediterranean watershed to fire by data analysis and a modelling approach

Arctic terrestrial hydrology: A synthesis of processes, regional effects, and research challenges

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