Simulation of potential suitable distribution of Alnus cremastogyne Burk. In China under climate change scenarios

Changes in future climate will have a great impact on biodiversity. Magnolia wilsonii, an endangered tree native to China, has important scientific and medicinal value occurring in western Sichuan, northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. And it has severely declined and become critically endangered in the last years due to habitat loss and fragmentation. In this study, we modeled the current and future distributions of M. wilsonii under three representative concentration pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the AUC values of all simulations were greater than 0.940. The key environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of M. wilsonii were the annual precipitation (573-1671 mm), the min temperature of coldest month (10.1ºC-16.2ºC), the coefficient of variation in precipitation seasonality (11.5-160.9), and the standard deviation of temperature seasonality (404.7-1765.6). The area of the highly suitable habitat was 29.66×10 4 km², mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Guangxi. Yunnan had the largest suitable habitat, occupying 13.23×10 4 km², accounting for 44.6% of the highly suitable area. Under the three climate change scenarios, the areas of the suitable habitat of M. wilsonii showed increasing trends, the geometric center of the highly suitable habitat would move to the northeast. Our results can provide a scientific basis for the protection, cultivation, management and sustainable use of M. wilsonii.

Section: Model Accuracy Verificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Potential Habitat For M Wilsonii Under Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Magnolia wilsonii Using MaxEnt under Climate Change in China

Yang¹,

Xue²,

Chen³

et al. 2022

“…Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) is a highly recognized diagnostic test evaluation index, and the value range of area value under ROC curve, i.e. AUC value, is 0.5-1 [22]. Kappa statistics is a consistency test method, which comprehensively considers the species distribution rate, sensitivity and specificity, and is widely used in model evaluation.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Maxentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change may accelerate and some species form new physiological characteristics to adapt [39,44,45]. Relevant studies have shown that changes in the temporal and spatial pattern of climate may lead to changes in the geographical distribution pattern of plants [20][21][22]46]. Systematic exploration of the geographical distribution pattern of Alexandrium under the background of climate change can provide a scientific basis for prevention and control and the formulation of relevant prevention and control policies.…”

Section: Potential Geographical Distribution Under Climate Change Sce...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Suitable Area of Invasive Species Alexandrium under Climate Change Scenarios in China Sea Areas

Lan¹,

Chen²,

Lin³

et al. 2022

Alien invasive algae along with ship ballast water have posed a serious threat to China's marine ecological security. A clear understanding of the geographical distribution of invasive species and their response to climate change can provide a scientific basis for their prevention and control. In this study, combined with environmental variables and distribution data, MaxEnt was used to predict the potential geographical distribution and change trend of Alexandrium in the four major sea areas of China currently, 2040s (2040-2050) and 2090s (2090-2100), reveal the dominant environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution, analyze the migration trends of centroids the highly suitable area, and clarify the key control sea areas. The results showed that: 1) The AUC values of all models were significantly higher than random models, and the Kappa statistics of all models were higher than "general", demonstrated that the prediction results were available.2) The most important environmental variable affecting the geographical distribution of Alexandrium was the Temperature. Range (bio24), and its suitable range was 23.43-31.52ºC. 2) At present, in the corresponding sea areas of Nantong,

“…Finally, 8 variables were obtained from 19 bioclimatic variables. In addition to abiotic climate variables, a total of 14 variables were selected to establish the prediction model of A. carmichaeli (Table 1) [41][42][43].…”

Section: Occurrence Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Potential Habitat of Aconitum carmichaeli Debeaux in China Based on Three Species Distribution Models

Li¹,

Yang²,

Wang³

et al. 2022

Aconitum carmichaelii Debeaux is a perennial herb and medicinal plant, which has the effects of warming Yang and dispelling cold, warming meridians and relieving pain, dispelling wind and dehumidification, supplementing fire and helping Yang. In recent years, affected by the destruction of shrubs and climate warming, the habitat of A. carmichaeli wild resources has been seriously damaged, indicating of great significance to the artificial protection and cultivation of A. carmichaeli to predict its potential suitable habitat using species distribution models (SDMs). In this paper, 14 environmental variables and 449 specimen distribution records were applied to three models, i.e. MaxEnt, GARP and Bioclim to simulate the distribution of A. carmichaeli. Our results showed that, the AUC average values of the three models were all above 0.85 and the Kappa average values were above 0.75, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of A. carmichaeli. Furthermore, simulation of MaxEnt showed that, the highly suitable habitats were concentrated in the middle east of Sichuan (17.07×10 4 km 2 ), western Hubei (7.34×10 4 km 2 ), southern Shaanxi (7.2×10 4 km 2 ), north central Guizhou (6.74×10 4 km 2 ), eastern Chongqing (5.62×10 4 km 2 ) and western Hunan (5.21×10 4 km 2 ) and scattered in the middle of Zhejiang (3.07×10 4 km 2 ), the southwest Anhui (1.87×10 4 km 2 ) and western Henan (1.43×10 4 km 2 ). Jackknife test and response curves determined that the key variables affecting the distribution of A. carmichaeli were annual precipitation (751.25-1580.72 mm), precipitation of warmest quarter (422.71-717.21 mm), min temperature of coldest month (-6.85-3.12ºC), temperature annual range (24.83-31.97ºC), elevation (145.87-2769.22 m) and human footprint (<4.01).