Simulation as an Approach to Social-Ecological Integration, with an Emphasis on Agent-Based Modeling

Boone, Randall B.; Galvin, Kathleen A.

doi:10.1007/978-94-017-8959-2_9

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…The coordination degree evaluation model can be currently divided into three categories: distance type, change type and integrated type (Table 1). Although some achievements [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] have been made in studying the coordination degree of the complex systems, a few issues still need to be clarified: Firstly, many terms have emerged, for example resource environment, environmental resources, ecological environment and social The coordination of a complex system is an important characteristic that reflects the relationships between the various subsystems, and among the internal indexes of these subsystems. The coordination degree of a complex system is a quantitative index that measures the harmony and consistency of the system, or among the elements of the system, during its development.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, there are no corresponding terms in any international environment, ecology, economic or sociology dictionaries [21]. Secondly, current investigations [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] largely focus on the coordination of binary or ternary component complex systems, and they rarely focus on the comprehensive analysis and research of REEES, which are closely related to sustainable development. Thirdly, the comprehensive coordination analysis and measurement of a complex system only considers either the internal coordination of the inner-subsystems or the coordination among them.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coordinated Development Analysis of the “Resources-Environment-Ecology-Economy-Society” Complex System in China

2016

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Abstract:The aim of investigating the coordination of the complex system constituted by resources, environment, ecology, economy and society subsystems (CSR3ES), is to achieve sustainable development by: (1) describing the complicated relationships of the inner-subsystems and inter-systems; (2) designing the calculation method of the coordination degree for CSR3ES; (3) analyzing its developing trends from a macro point of view through comprehensive coordination degree; and (4) to determine the direction of system restoration from a micro point of view based on the inner-subsystem and inter-subsystem coordination degree, and to develop specific improvement strategies. By setting a province-level administrative region as a decision-making unit (DMU), the nationwide coordination of CSR3ES was studied. The main conclusions are: (1) The coordination degree between the subsystems is directly influenced by interactions between the elements. (2) Within the provinces and autonomous regions (PARs) in China, the levels of coordinated development of inter-subsystems are high, while the coordinated development between the elements within a single subsystem level are low. Furthermore, a positive coherent effect is exerted on the comprehensive coordination degree of CSR3ES by the inter-system synergistic effects. (3) In terms of spatial correlation, five comprehensive coordinated development modes of CSR3ES are formed: the northeast regional coordination mode group; the northwest regional uncoordinated mode group; the southeast regional coordination mode group; the central regional random mode group; and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei polarization mode.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coordinated Development Analysis of the “Resources-Environment-Ecology-Economy-Society” Complex System in China

2016

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“…Agent-based models (ABMs) represent system dynamics as emergent from the behaviour and interactions of individual entities, and are favoured by some modellers for their greater apparent representational realism than optimisation-based land system models, which reduce behaviour to aggregate economic responses. They also often have distinct purposes, commonly being used for exploration or understanding of system dynamics rather than reproducing and predicting particular outcomes; attempting to generate and explain observed phenomena rather than to replicate them (Bianchi & Squazzoni, 2019;Boone & Galvin, 2014;Epstein, 1999).…”

Section: The Special Case Of Agent-based Models?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the quality of land system models: moving from valibration to evaludation

Brown

Millington

Rounsevell

2023

SESMO

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Reviews suggest that evaluation of land system models is largely inadequate, with undue reliance on a vague concept of validation. Efforts to improve and standardise evaluation practices have so far had limited effect. In this article we examine the issues surrounding land system model evaluation and consider the relevance of the TRACE framework for environmental model documentation. In doing so, we discuss the application of a comprehensive range of evaluation procedures to existing models, and the value of each specific procedure. We develop a tiered checklist for going beyond what seems to be a common practice of ‘valibration’ (the repeated variation of model parameter values to achieve agreement with data) to achieving ‘evaludation’ (the rigorous, broad-based assessment of model quality and validity). We propose the Land Use Change – TRACE (LUC-TRACE) model evaludation protocol and argue that engagement with a comprehensive protocol of this kind (even if not this particular one) is valuable in ensuring that land system model results are interpreted appropriately. We also suggest that the main benefit of such formalised structures is to assist the process of critical thinking about model utility, and that the variety of legitimate modelling approaches precludes universal tests of whether a model is ‘valid’. Evaludation is therefore a detailed and subjective process requiring the sustained intellectual engagement of model developers and users.

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“…We adopted a means to quantify the effects of loss of access to CBC areas and changing drought frequencies that used a coupledsystems approach to simulate a social-ecological system (Schlüter et al 2012) of northern Kenya inhabited by the Samburu people. Our approach is now frequently used in coupled-systems analyses, where a spatially explicit process-based ecosystem model is joined to a rule-driven agent-based model representing households and their decision making (e.g., Boone and Galvin 2014. The models are loosely linked discrete-time simulations, where the passage of time is simulated in steps and information is passed between the tools.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought frequency, conservancies, and pastoral household well-being

Boone,

Lesorogol,

Galvin

2024

E&S

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Portions of group ranches of northern Kenya communally held by pastoralists have been removed from grazing to support wildlife and encourage tourism and the resources that follow. These community-based conservancies (CBCs) were designed to benefit CBC members through regular payments, potential for wages, improved security, etc. We used a coupled-systems simulation approach to quantify potential changes in livestock numbers and pastoral well-being associated with the presence of CBC core and buffer areas, and we did so under the current frequency of droughts and increased frequency associated with climate change. The interannual precipitation coefficient of variation (CV) for our focal CBCs in Samburu County was 22% (706 mm average precipitation). We altered precipitation variability to span from 10% to 60% CV while maintaining the average. Compared to a simulation with observed precipitation and all rangelands available, when herders did not use the CBC core areas and seasonally avoided buffer areas, there was an 11% decline in tropical livestock units supported. More predictable precipitation patterns supported more livestock and improved pastoral well-being. At CVs above 30%, dramatic declines in livestock populations were simulated. When drought was made moderately more frequent (i.e., CV from 22% to 27%) there was a 15% decline in the number of livestock. Members receive a variety of benefits as part of CBC communities, but payments are small for these CBCs, and most households do not receive payments. Our results suggest that, from an economic perspective alone, payments must be raised to make membership of residents in conservancies more tenable. Additional adaptive pathways and perhaps external supports will be needed in the future as the frequency of drought increases and livestock populations decrease.

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Simulation as an Approach to Social-Ecological Integration, with an Emphasis on Agent-Based Modeling

Cited by 10 publications

References 68 publications

Coordinated Development Analysis of the “Resources-Environment-Ecology-Economy-Society” Complex System in China

Coordinated Development Analysis of the “Resources-Environment-Ecology-Economy-Society” Complex System in China

Assessing the quality of land system models: moving from valibration to evaludation

Drought frequency, conservancies, and pastoral household well-being

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