Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model

Adhikari, Pradip; Ale, Srinivasulu; Bordovsky, James P.; Thorp, Kelly R.; Modala, Naga Raghuveer; Rajan, Nithya; Barnes, Edward M.

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2015.10.011

Cited by 83 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…On the other hand, Kang et al [8] and others indicated increased crop production with a modest rise in average temperature of 1-3 • C, but decreasing yields above this range. From the hydrological modeling perspective, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) [11] has been used to assess quality and quantity issues [12,13] to identify critical source areas [14] and impacts on crop-yield [15,16] due to changes in climate and land uses in order to suggest improved management practices [17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Gharibdousti

Kharel

Miller

et al. 2019

Water

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Climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds are highly variable and uncertain across regions. This study estimated the potential impacts of the projected precipitation and temperature based on the downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP-5) on hydrology and crop yield of a rural watershed in Oklahoma, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to model the watershed with 43 sub-basins and 15,217 combinations of land use, land cover, soil, and slope. The model was driven by the observed climate in the watershed and was first calibrated and validated against the monthly observed streamflow. Three statistical matrices, coefficient of determination (R 2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percentage bias (PB), were used to gauge the model performance with satisfactory values of R 2 = 0.64, NS = 0.61, and PB = +5% in the calibration period, and R 2 = 0.79, NSE = 0.62, and PB = −15% in the validation period for streamflow. The model parameterization for the yields of cotton (PB = −4.5%), grain sorghum (PB = −27.3%), and winter wheat (PB = −6.0%) resulted in an acceptable model performance. The CMIP-5 ensemble of three General Circulation Models under three Representative Concentration Pathways for the 2016-2040 period indicated an increase in both precipitation (+1.5%) and temperature (+1.8 • C) in the study area. This changed climate resulted in decreased evapotranspiration (−3.7%), increased water yield (23.9%), decreased wheat yield (−5.2%), decreased grain sorghum yield (−9.9%), and increased cotton yield (+54.2%) compared to the historical climate. The projected increase in water yield might provide opportunities for groundwater recharge and additional water to meet future water demand in the region. The projected decrease in winter wheat yield-the major crop in the state-due to climate change, may require attention for ways to mitigate these effects.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Gharibdousti

Kharel

Miller

et al. 2019

Water

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“…Photothermal duration between first flower and first pod (FL-SH), which was important to simulate the timing of first boll, was adjusted to 4, and photothermal time between first flower and end of leaf expansion (FL-LF) was adjusted to 50 days. Similarly, other sensitive parameters that affect the photosynthesis rate, transpiration, and assimilation of carbon in Modala et al (2015) for the TRP region and by Adhikari et al (2016) for the nearby THP region.…”

Section: Calibration and Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Modala et al (2015) used the DSSAT CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model to identify appropriate deficit-irrigation strategies for increasing water use efficiency in the TRP region. Recently, Adhikari et al (2016) used the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model to simulate future (2041-2070) seed cotton yields in the THP region under increasing and constant atmospheric CO 2 concentration scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulated Effects of Winter Wheat Cover Crop on Cotton Production Systems of the Texas Rolling Plains

Adhikari¹,

Omani²,

Ale³

et al. 2017

Transactions of the ASABE

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ABSTRACT. Interest in cover crops has been increasing in the Texas (1) irrigated cotton without a cover crop (CwoC-I), (2) irrigated cotton with winter wheat as a cover crop (CwC-I), (3) dryland cotton without a cover crop (CwoC-D), and (4) dryland cotton with a winter wheat cover crop (CwC-D) at the Texas A&M AgriLife Research Station at Chillicothe from 2011 to 2015. The average percent error (PE) between the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton simulated and measured seed cotton yield was -10.1% and -1.0% during the calibration and evaluation periods, respectively, and the percent root mean square error (%RMSE) was 11.9% during calibration and 27.6% during evaluation. For simulation of aboveground biomass by the CSM-CERES-Wheat model, the PE and %RMSE were 8.9% and 9.1%, respectively, during calibration and -0.9% and 21.8%, respectively, during evaluation. Results from the long-term (2001-2015) simulations indicated that there was no substantial reduction in average seed cotton yield and soil water due to growing winter wheat as a cover crop.

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“…During both calibration and validation years, simulated emergence, anthesis, and physiological maturity dates were within the observed range (Robertson et al 2007). In a recent study, Adhikari et al (2016) also observed similar range of anthesis and physiological maturity days in the THP. Although the simulated physiological maturity dates varied in different years, they were typically within the observed range.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 53%

“…Numerous researchers (Scanlon et al 2002;Sophocleous 2010;Haacker et al 2016) have reported that ongoing depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer poses major challenges for crop production in the THP. In addition, researchers (Adams et al 1998;Adhikari et al 2016) also predict future reduced precipitation and warmer summer temperatures in the THP. It is expected in the coming decades that there will be a gradual shift in cotton production from irrigated to dryland/rainfed management.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Calibration and Validation of CSM‐CROPGRO‐Cotton Model Using Lysimeter Data in the Texas High Plains

Adhikari

Gowda

Marek

et al. 2017

Contemporary Water Research

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Texas High Plains (THP), one of the most important food and fiber producing regions in the Ogallala Aquifer Region, currently faces rapid decline of groundwater levels. Predicted climate extremes and high temporal variability in growing season precipitation may require growers to pump more groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer to meet higher crop water demand. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model (CSM) is a widely used crop simulation tool for evaluating impacts of different water and crop management practices, including irrigation on crop yield and water use efficiency. In this study, CROPGRO-Cotton module of the DSSAT was calibrated and validated using 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2010 During the calibration process, some of the cultivar and ecotype parameters that influence LAI, AGB, and lint yield were adjusted for better statistical results. Measured and simulated LAI, AGB, ET, soil moisture, and lint yield showed good agreement during calibration and validation as indicated by performance statistics such as r 2 from 0.70 to 0.82, and percent error (PE) = -0.85 to 17.3% for LAI; r 2 = 0.89 to 0.95, and PE = -7.36 to -13.66% for AGB; and r 2 = 0.90 to 0.94, and PE = 3.20 to 3.44% for ET during calibration and validation, respectively. The model underestimated ET during peak vegetative growth and development stage except in some circumstances. The calibrated and validated model was able to simulate lint yield and seasonal ET during a long term historic period for Bushland, TX, under irrigated conditions. The calibrated model could be used to schedule ET based irrigation management practices in the THP and to estimate future ET for other modeling experiments.

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Simulating future climate change impacts on seed cotton yield in the Texas High Plains using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model

Cited by 83 publications

References 32 publications

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Projected Climate Could Increase Water Yield and Cotton Yield but Decrease Winter Wheat and Sorghum Yield in an Agricultural Watershed in Oklahoma

Simulated Effects of Winter Wheat Cover Crop on Cotton Production Systems of the Texas Rolling Plains

Calibration and Validation of CSM‐CROPGRO‐Cotton Model Using Lysimeter Data in the Texas High Plains

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