Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change

Graß, Rüdiger; Thies, Burga; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Wachendorf, M.

doi:10.1016/j.eja.2015.06.005

Cited by 26 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 55 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Running simulations for the second half of the century using the A1B scenario of the IPCC (2007), Nendel et al (2014) designed crop rotations that are expected to become possible in the future in Germany due to a prolonged vegetation period and at the same time shortened cereal growth period: for instance, spring barley succeeding to winter barley could likely be successful but no more (late-sown) winter wheat after sugar beet because of drought exposure. The intensification of the cropping cycle by double cropping could benefit from the longer growing season and allow for larger annual yields in spite of climate change (Graß et al, 2015;Seifert and Lobell, 2015). Very early-maturing varieties could be planted after winter crops which complete their cycle in late spring.…”

Section: Modifying and Widening Crop Rotationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-smart cropping systems for temperate and tropical agriculture: mitigation, adaptation and trade-offs

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

-Climate-smart cropping systems should be designed with three objectives: reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adapting to changing and fluctuating climate and environment, and securing food production sustainably. Agriculture can improve the net GHG emissions balance via three levers: less N 2 O, CH 4 and CO 2 emissions, more carbon storage, and green energy production (agrifuels, biogas). Reducing the application of mineral N fertilizer is the main option for reducing N 2 O emissions either directly or by increasing the proportion of legumes in the rotation. The most promising options for mitigating CH 4 emissions in paddy fields are based on mid-season drainage or intermittent irrigation. The second option is storing more carbon in soil and biomass by promoting no-tillage (less fuel, crop residues), sowing cover crops, introducing or maintaining grasslands and promoting agroforestry. Breeding for varieties better adapted to thermal shocks and drought is mainly suggested as long-term adaptation to climate change. Short-term strategies have been identified from current practices to take advantage of more favorable growing conditions or to offset negative impacts: shifting sowing dates, changing species, cultivars and crop rotations, modifying soil management and fertilization, introducing or expanding irrigation. Some crops could also move to more suitable locations. Model-based tools and site-specific technologies should be developed to optimize, support and secure farmer's decisions in a context of uncertainty and hazards. Most of the adaptation and mitigation options are going in the same way but tradeoffs will have to be addressed (e.g. increasing the part of legumes will be possible only with significant breeding efforts). This will be a challenge for designing cropping systems in a multifunctional perspective.

show abstract

Section: Modifying and Widening Crop Rotationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-smart cropping systems for temperate and tropical agriculture: mitigation, adaptation and trade-offs

2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The breeding strategies aim at improved water efficiency, improved drought stress tolerance, and increased responsiveness to higher atmospheric [CO 2 ] (Ceccarelli et al, 2010;Ziska et al, 2012). However, prospective results of plant breeding are unforeseeable and the impact assessment strongly depends on the assumptions made on breeding progress (Graß et al, 2015).…”

Section: Genetics and Plant Breedingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sunflower could be more present in the situations where water resources are scarce. Double cropping could benefit from the longer cropping duration on an annual basis (Graß et al, 2015). Very early sunflower varieties could be planted after oilseed rape, barley or pea completing their cycle in late spring.…”

Section: Adaptation Of Cultural Practicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sunflower crop and climate change: vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation potential from case-studies in Europe

Debaeke¹,

Casadebaig²,

Flénet

et al. 2017

OCL

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

-Climate change is characterized by higher temperatures, elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, extreme climatic hazards, and less water available for agriculture. Sunflower, a springsown crop often cultivated in southern and eastern regions of Europe, could be more vulnerable to the direct effect of heat stress at anthesis and drought during its growing cycle, both factors resulting in severe yield loss, oil content decrease, and fatty acid alterations. Adaptations through breeding (earliness, stress tolerance), crop management (planting dates), and shifting of growing areas could be developed, assessed and combined to partly cope with these negative impacts. New cultivation opportunities could be expected in northern parts of Europe where sunflower is not grown presently and where it could usefully contribute to diversify cereal-based cropping systems. In addition, sunflower crop could participate to the mitigation solution as a low greenhouse gas emitter compared to cereals and oilseed rape. Sunflower crop models should be revised to account for these emerging environmental factors in order to reduce the uncertainties in yield and oil predictions. The future of sunflower in Europe is probably related to its potential adaptation to climate change but also to its competitiveness and attractiveness for food and energy.Keywords: CO 2 / temperature / crop model / biotic stress / water deficit Résumé -Culture du tournesol et changement climatique : vulnérabilité, adaptation et potentiel d'atténuation via des études de cas en Europe. Le changement climatique se caractérise par des températures élevées, de plus fortes concentrations atmosphériques en CO 2 , des risques climatiques extrêmes et moins d'eau disponible pour l'agriculture. Le tournesol, culture semée au printemps dans le sud et l'est de l'Europe, pourrait être plus exposé à l'avenir aux fortes températures et à un déficit hydrique marqué dès la floraison, avec pour conséquences des pertes de rendement, une diminution de la teneur en huile et une altération de la composition en acides gras. Des adaptations sont possibles à court et moyen terme par la sélection (précocité, tolérance aux stress), la conduite de culture (date de semis) et le déplacement des zones de production, permettant de faire face en partie aux impacts négatifs attendus. Ainsi le tournesol pourrait être cultivé plus au nord participant utilement à la nécessaire diversification des bassins céréaliers. En outre, la culture de tournesol étant faiblement émettrice de gaz à effet de serre par rapport aux céréales ou au colza pourrait contribuer davantage à la solution climatique apportée par l'agriculture. Les modèles de culture devraient être revus pour mieux tenir compte de ces facteurs environnementaux émergents si l'on veut réduire les incertitudes dans les prédictions de rendement et de teneur en huile. L'avenir du tournesol en Europe est probablement lié à son potentiel d'adaptation au changement climatique, mais dépendra aussi de sa compétitivité et de son attractivité en t...

show abstract

“…The CERES system, developed in 1896, updated today, is the most used to evaluate corn and wheat crops, considering two scenarios of Climate Change. Gallo (2015) performed daily calculations on phenological aspects, growth index, distribution of biomass, the HERMES model of Kersebaum in 1989, simulated monocultures and double corn cultivation along with predictions regarding the year 2100 as well as a decrease in yield in summer periods from 2050 (Graß et al, 2015).…”

Section: Traditional Technological Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the Climate Change whose origin is anthropogenic and emerges with the modern era and its processes of industrialization, according to Graß et al (2015), will continue to cause global temperature increases, from 1.4 to 4.0°C by the year 2050. There will be extreme climatic events of greater frequency and Gutiérrez et al 221 intensity, new pests and diseases, water shortage, losses of biodiversity, among others, causing crop reduction, yield and quality FAO (2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable and technological strategies for basic cereal crops in the face of climate change: A literature review

GutiÃ©rrez¹,

Palacios²,

Ruiz-Vanoye³

et al. 2018

Afr. J. Agric. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

At the international level, corn, wheat and rice are basic grains considered to be the most important food source for humans, as they are a fundamental part of the daily diet and represent more than 55% of the caloric intake. They make up the greater production and consumption in the world. Due to Climate Change, these highly vulnerable crops to extreme temperatures have suffered a reduction in quality and quantity of yields. In addition, there is an increase in the risk of production especially for small farmers who provide more than 75% of the world production. According to the projections for the year 2050, basic cereals will continue to be essential for food security and global survival. In turn, the temperature will continue to increase and will cause a decrease of up to 10% in yield for each increased degree celsius, in the absence of sustainable adaptation. The present work consists of a review of the literature of adaptation strategies in the face of Climate Change, which contributes to reestablishing the damage caused by the green revolution on basic cereal crops, the environment, and biodiversity, the technological strategies review was also included considering that it is a tool that offers valuable support to the farmer in the decision making inherent in the planning and improvement of their cereal crops.

show abstract

Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change

Cited by 26 publications

References 55 publications

Climate-smart cropping systems for temperate and tropical agriculture: mitigation, adaptation and trade-offs

Climate-smart cropping systems for temperate and tropical agriculture: mitigation, adaptation and trade-offs

Sunflower crop and climate change: vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation potential from case-studies in Europe

Sustainable and technological strategies for basic cereal crops in the face of climate change: A literature review

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About