The sensitivity of Vatnajökull ice cap to future climate change is examined using spatially distributed coupled models of ice dynamics and hydrology. We simulate the evolving ice cap geometry, mass balance, velocity structure, subglacial water pressures and fluxes, and basin runoff in response to perturbations to a 1961-1990 reference climatology. For a prescribed warming rate of 2°C per century, simulated ice cap area and volume are reduced by 12-15% and 18-25% within 100 years, respectively. Individual …
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