Sensitivity of Potential Groundwater Recharge to Projected Climate Change Scenarios: A Site-Specific Study in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA

Adane, Zablon; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.; Rossman, Nathan R.; Wang, Zhihui; Nasta, Paolo

doi:10.3390/w11050950

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 63 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The 222 mean annual AI values were ranked in ascending order. Three models defined as dry, median, and wet climate scenarios were selected at 5 th , 50 th , and 95 th percentiles, respectively, as recently done by Adane et al (2019).…”

Section: Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

The combined impact of redcedar encroachment and climate change on water resources in the Nebraska Sand Hills

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH) is considered a major recharge zone for the High Plains Aquifer in the central United States. The uncontrolled expansion of the eastern redcedar (Juniperus Virginiana) under climate warming is posing threats to surface water and groundwater resources. The combined impact of land use and climate change on the water balance in the Upper Middle Loup River watershed (4,954 km2) in the NSH was evaluated by simulating different combinations of model scenarios using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. A total of 222 climate models were ranked according to the aridity index and three models representing wet, median (most likely), and dry conditions were selected. Additionally, the impacts of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on root water uptake were simulated. Four plausible redcedar encroachment scenarios, namely 0.5% (no encroachment), 2.4, 4.6, and 11.9%, were considered in the numerical simulations. We, therefore, built: i) the historical scenario (2000–2019) with the current climate and redcedar cover leading to baseline results; ii) the most-likely future scenario (2020–2099) with projected climate (50th percentile of aridity index distribution) and redcedar encroachment that was estimated by using a combination of neural network and Markov-chain cellular automata model; iii) 16 future scenarios (2020–2099) with different combinations of extreme climate (5th and 95th percentiles of aridity index distribution) and four hypothetical encroachment scenarios (0.5, 2.4, 4.6, and 11.9%). The most-likely climate projection indicates that a warming pattern will be expected with a 4.1°C increase in average over the 100-year period, and this will be associated with lower-than-normal precipitation (P). Nevertheless, the concurrent increase in temperature and CO2 concentration is likely to induce stomata closure by reducing potential (ETp) and actual (ETa) evapotranspiration losses. Projected P, ETp, ETa, and discharge (D) are expected to decrease by 6, 39, 24, and 2%, respectively, while recharge (R) will likely increase by 27%. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of 16 combined climate and land use scenarios is presented and discussed. The scenario modeling approach presented in this paper can support decision-making by stakeholders for optimal management of water resources.

show abstract

Section: Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

The combined impact of redcedar encroachment and climate change on water resources in the Nebraska Sand Hills

et al. 2022

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…where SCF is the soil cover fraction (-), and k is the radiation extinction constant (-), usually assumed to be equal to 0.463 as indicated by various studies, e.g., [34][35][36].…”

Section: Prediction Of Reference Evapotranspiration Et0 and Biome-specific Potential Evapotranspiration Etpmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Biome-Specific Potential Evapotranspiration in Mongolia under a Scarcity of Weather Data

Batsukh

Zlotnik

Suyker

et al. 2021

Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We propose practical guidelines to predict biome-specific potential evapotranspiration (ETp) from the knowledge of grass-reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and a crop coefficient (Kc) in Mongolia. A paucity of land-based weather data hampers use of the Penman–Monteith equation (FAO-56 PM) based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) guidelines to predict daily ET0. We found that the application of the Hargreaves equation provides ET0 estimates very similar to those from the FAO-56 PM approach. The Kc value is tabulated only for crops in the FAO-56 guidelines but is unavailable for steppe grasslands. Therefore, we proposed a new crop coefficient, Kc adj defined by (a) net solar radiation in the Gobi Desert (Kc adjD) or (b) leaf area index in the steppe region (Kc adjS) in Mongolia. The mean annual ETp obtained using our approach was compared to that obtained by FAO-56 guidelines for forages (not steppe) based on tabulated Kc values in 41 locations in Mongolia. We found the differences are acceptable (RMSE of 0.40 mm d−1) in northern Mongolia under high vegetation cover but rather high (RMSE of 1.69 and 2.65 mm d−1) in central and southern Mongolia. The FAO aridity index (AI) is empirically related to the ETp/ET0 ratio. Approximately 80% and 54% reduction of ET0 was reported in the Gobi Desert and in the steppe locations, respectively. Our proposed Kc adj can be further improved by considering local weather data and plant phenological characteristics.

show abstract

“…In contrast, the distribution of the mean relative difference in soil moisture was still significantly correlated with the soil hydraulic properties (most notably the residual soil moisture content) under arid climatic conditions. Adane et al (2019) [13] studied the impact of climate forecasts on GR within a probabilistic framework in a site-specific study in the Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), the largest stabilized sand dune region in the USA, containing the greatest recharge rates within the High Plains Aquifer. A total of 19 downscaled climate projections were used to evaluate the impact of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration on the GR rates simulated by using a HYDRUS 1-D model.…”

Section: Special Issue Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Flow, Solute and Heat Transfer in Groundwater

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Sensitivity of Potential Groundwater Recharge to Projected Climate Change Scenarios: A Site-Specific Study in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA

Cited by 16 publications

References 63 publications

The combined impact of redcedar encroachment and climate change on water resources in the Nebraska Sand Hills

The combined impact of redcedar encroachment and climate change on water resources in the Nebraska Sand Hills

Prediction of Biome-Specific Potential Evapotranspiration in Mongolia under a Scarcity of Weather Data

Water Flow, Solute and Heat Transfer in Groundwater

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About