Sensitivities of Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Formation to Emissions under the Impact of Potential Future Climate Change

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Napelenok, Sergey L.; Woo, Jung‐Hun; He, Shan; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G.

doi:10.1021/es070998z

Cited by 37 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 33 publications

(46 reference statements)

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“…2050 provides an opportunity to assess the combined effects of planned emission controls and climate change. Changes in sensitivities of MDA8h O3 and 24-h average PM2.5 to emissions are primarily due to planned emission changes between 2001 and 2050 as previous results suggest that the effects of emission controls are more significant than those of climate change alone (2,6).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls

Liao

Tagaris

Napelenok

et al. 2008

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Responses of ozone and PM2.5 to emission changes are coupled because of interactions between their precursors. Here we show the interdependencies of ozone and PM2.5 responses to emission changes in 2001 and 2050, with the future case accounting for both currently planned emission controls and climate change. Current responses of ozone and PM2.5 to emissions are quantified and linked on a daily basis for five cities in the continental United States: Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York. Reductions in anthropogenic NO x emissions decrease 24-h average PM2.5 levels but may either increase or decrease daily maximum 8-h average ozone levels. Regional ozone maxima for all the cities are more sensitive to NO x reductions than at the city center, particularly in New York and Chicago. Planned controls of anthropogenic NO x emissions lead to more positive responses to NO x reductions in the future. Sensitivities of ozone and PM2.5 to anthropogenic VOC emissions are predicted to decrease between 2001 and 2050. Ammonium nitrate formation is predicted to be less ammonia-sensitive in 2050 than 2001 while the opposite is true for ammonium sulfate. Sensitivity of PM2.5 to SO2 and NO x emissions changes little between 2001 and 2050. Both ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate are predicted to decrease in sensitivity to SO2 and NO x emissions between 2001 and 2050. The complexities, linkages, and daily changes in the pollutant responses to emission changes suggest that strategies developed to meet specific air quality standards should consider other air quality impacts as well.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls

Liao

Tagaris

Napelenok

et al. 2008

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Liao et al (2007) examined this issue for the U.S. with the model of Tagaris et al (2007) and found no significant effect, implying that emission control strategies designed for the present climate should still be successful in the future climate. Model simulations by Baertsch-Ritter et al (2004) for the Milan urban plume show increased ozone sensitivity to NMVOCs as temperature increases, due to the reduced thermal stability of PAN and hence higher concentrations of NO x .…”

Section: Implications For Air Quality Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on air quality

Jacob

Winner

2009

Atmospheric Environment

1,585

1,232

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a b s t r a c tAir quality is strongly dependent on weather and is therefore sensitive to climate change. Recent studies have provided estimates of this climate effect through correlations of air quality with meteorological variables, perturbation analyses in chemical transport models (CTMs), and CTM simulations driven by general circulation model (GCM) simulations of 21st-century climate change. We review these different approaches and their results. The future climate is expected to be more stagnant, due to a weaker global circulation and a decreasing frequency of mid-latitude cyclones. The observed correlation between surface ozone and temperature in polluted regions points to a detrimental effect of warming. Coupled GCM-CTM studies find that climate change alone will increase summertime surface ozone in polluted regions by 1-10 ppb over the coming decades, with the largest effects in urban areas and during pollution episodes. This climate penalty means that stronger emission controls will be needed to meet a given air quality standard. Higher water vapor in the future climate is expected to decrease the ozone background, so that pollution and background ozone have opposite sensitivities to climate change. The effect of climate change on particulate matter (PM) is more complicated and uncertain than for ozone. Precipitation frequency and mixing depth are important driving factors but projections for these variables are often unreliable. GCM-CTM studies find that climate change will affect PM concentrations in polluted environments by AE0.1-1 mg m À3 over the coming decades. Wildfires fueled by climate change could become an increasingly important PM source. Major issues that should be addressed in future research include the ability of GCMs to simulate regional air pollution meteorology and its sensitivity to climate change, the response of natural emissions to climate change, and the atmospheric chemistry of isoprene. Research needs to be undertaken on the effect of climate change on mercury, particularly in view of the potential for a large increase in mercury soil emissions driven by increased respiration in boreal ecosystems.

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“…These relations are documented in several studies (Mickley et al, 2004;Stevenson et al, 2006;Liao et al;2007;Weaver et al, 2009). These changes may pose health risks to the population, so it is a challenge the ability of cities to adapt to and mitigate the climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Escenarios climáticos globales de alta resolución para entornos regionales y urbanos con estudios de impacto en la salud

José

Pérez

et al. 2016

Fís. Tierra

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In this contribution we have used global climate RCP IPCC scenarios to produce climate and air pollution maps at regional (25 km resolution) and urban scale with 200 m spatial resolution over Europe and five European cities in order to investigate the impact on meteorological variables and pollutant concentrations . We have used the very well known mesoscale meeorological model WRF-Chem (NOAA, US). We have used 2011 as control past year and two RCP scenarios from CCSM global climate model with 4.5 W/m 2 and 8.5 W/m 2 for 2030, 2050 and 2100 years. After running WRF-Chem model, using the boundary conditions provided by RCP scenarios with the emissions of 2011, we have performed a detailed downscaling process using CALMET diagnostic model to obtain a full 200 m spatial resolution map of five European cities (London, Antwerp, Madrid, Milan, and Helsinki). We will show the results and the health impacts for future RCP IPCC climate scenarios in comparison with the 2011 control year information for climate and health indicators. Finnally, we have also investigated the impact of the aerosol effects in the short wave radiation mean value. Two simulations with the WRF-Chem model have been performed over Europe in 2010. A baseline simulation without any feedback effects and a second simulation including the direct effects affecting the solar radiation reaching the surface as well as the indirect aerosol effect with potential impacts on increasing or decreasing the precipitation rates. Aerosol effects produce an increase of incoming radiation over Atlantic Ocean (up to 70%) because the prescribed aerosol concentrations in the WRF-Chem without feedbacks is substantially higher than the aerosol concentrations produced when we activate the feedback effects. The decrease in solar radiation in the Sahara area (10%) is found to be produced because the prescribed aerosol concentration in the "no feedback" simulation is lower than when we activate the feedback effects. Escenarios climáticos globales de alta resolucion para entornos regionales y urbanos con estudios de impacto en la salud ResumenEn esta contribución se han considerado dos escenarios climáticos globales RCP IPCC para producir información de clima y calidad del aire a escala regional (25 km de resolución) y escala urbana (200 metros) sobre Europa y cinco ciudades europeas utilizando el modelo WRF-Chem (NOAA,US), con el objetivo de investigar el impacto en las variables meteorológicas y las concentraciones de contaminantes. El año 2011 se ha establecido como el año de control, los dos escenarios RCP del modelo climático global CCSM elegidos son 4.5 W/m2 y 8.5 W/m2 y los resultados mostrados son para los años 2030, 2050 y 2100. Tras ejecutar el modelo WRF-Chem con condiciones de contorno suministradas por los escenarios RCP con emisiones del año de control, se ha realizado un refinamiento de escala con el modelo de diagnóstico CALMET para obtener mapas de 200 metros de las cinco ciudades europeas. En este trabajo se muestran los resultados y los impactos de los...

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Sensitivities of Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Formation to Emissions under the Impact of Potential Future Climate Change

Cited by 37 publications

References 33 publications

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls

Effect of climate change on air quality

Escenarios climáticos globales de alta resolución para entornos regionales y urbanos con estudios de impacto en la salud

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Sensitivities of Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter Formation to Emissions under the Impact of Potential Future Climate Change

Cited by 37 publications

References 33 publications

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM2.5 to Emission Controls

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM2.5 to Emission Controls

Effect of climate change on air quality

Escenarios climáticos globales de alta resolución para entornos regionales y urbanos con estudios de impacto en la salud

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls

Current and Future Linked Responses of Ozone and PM_2.5 to Emission Controls