Seismic hazard assessment for Iran in terms of macroseismic intensity

Abstract

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iran based on a statistical procedure specifically developed to manage macroseismic intensity data. This method takes into careful consideration the specific features of such data, which are characterized as ordinal, discrete, and confined within a finite interval, ensuring a logically coherent approach throughout the analysis. The results of our assessment are then compared with hazard maps generated using a standard approach, putting in evidence significant differences both on a national scale and relative to individual cities. This comparative analysis will be useful in identifying areas of utmost concern, where further studies are strongly recommended to yield hazard estimates of greater robustness and reliability. By pinpointing these critical scenarios, we aim to guide future research endeavors towards providing more accurate and reliable seismic hazard estimates. Identifying these critical situations facilitates the prioritization of resources and interventions, ultimately enhancing seismic risk mitigation efforts across Iran.