Secular Trends in the Burden of Multiple Myeloma From 1990 to 2019 and Its Projection Until 2044 in China

Abstract

ObjectiveMultiple myeloma (MM) imposes a heavy burden in China. Understanding the secular trend of MM burden and projecting its future trend could facilitate appropriate public health planning and improve the management of MM.MethodsSex-specific incidence and mortality rates of MM in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The secular trend of MM burden was analyzed by joinpoint regression. Age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on MM burden and project future trends up to 2044.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM continued to increase in males. For females, the age-standardized rates were stable in MM incidence and decreased in MM mortality. Males had a higher disease burden of MM than females. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for MM incidence and mortality. Moreover, the risk of MM incidence and mortality increased with increasing time period but decreased with birth cohort in males and females. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM in China is predicted to be continuously increasing over the next 25 years.ConclusionThe burden of MM in China is expected to continue to increase in the future, with significant sex difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of MM could help develop timely intervention measures to effectively reduce its burden.

Treatment benefit of upfront autologous stem cell transplantation for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

“…The longer the follow-up duration is, the higher the possibility that salvage HDT/ASCT and the newest potent treatment regimens will be applied in the SDT/no ASCT group, which might reduce the OS difference between the 2 groups. It has been reported that older age is a crucial risk factor for elevated MM mortality, possibly due to deterioration of the general condition and intolerance to high-intensity antitumor therapy [ 38 , 39 ]. Previous studies also implied that males have higher incidence and mortality rates than females, which might be attributed to hormone differences and an increased probability of carcinogen exposure among males, such as smoking and alcohol [ 38 , 40 ].…”

“…It has been reported that older age is a crucial risk factor for elevated MM mortality, possibly due to deterioration of the general condition and intolerance to high-intensity antitumor therapy [ 38 , 39 ]. Previous studies also implied that males have higher incidence and mortality rates than females, which might be attributed to hormone differences and an increased probability of carcinogen exposure among males, such as smoking and alcohol [ 38 , 40 ]. HDT/ASCT was reported to be effective for MM patients with both high- and low-risk genetic features [ 41 ].…”

Global, regional, and national years lived with disability due to blindness and vision loss from 1990 to 2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

“…First, GBD data were calculated based on existing data of various countries by using algorithms. The accuracy of data depends to a large extent on the quality and quantity of the data used in the algorithm, which could affect the accuracy of the estimated burden ( 37 ). Second, data are sparse in representative regions and ethnic groups in many countries and age groups.…”

Correlation of Plasma Cell Percentage and Monoclonal Gammapathies with Biochemical Parameters in Multiple Myeloma Patients: A Retrospective Study

“…The Age Standardized Rate (ASR) for MM incidence was 1.78 per 100,000 individuals worldwide in 2020. Males were more likely than women to develop MM (ASR: 2.10), and men were also more likely to die from MM (ASR: 1.41) than women (ASR: 0.93) [6].…”