Sea-level rise impact and future scenarios of inundation risk along the coastal plains in Campania (Italy)

Abstract

Sea-level rise as a consequence of global warming increases the need to analyze coastal risks to conceive adaptation strategies aimed at coping with marine impacts at both short- and long-term scales. In this context, this study presents future scenarios of inundation risk evaluated along the main alluvial coastal plains of the Campania region (Italy). Due to their geomorphological and stratigraphical setting, the investigated areas are characterized by low topography and relevant but variable subsidence rates. Based on the upgrade of already published data and the new analysis of available datasets derived by multi-temporal interferometric processing of satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, future scenarios of local sea level for the years 2065 and 2100 have been evaluated coupling global projections with local subsidence trends. Furthermore, aspects related with the distribution of natural and anthropic assets, as well as the local social vulnerability, have been taken into account to calculate the overall risk. The inundation risk maps here proposed can effectively address the request to improve the knowledge of policymakers and local administrators and to raise their awareness about the potential impacts of climate change in coastal areas.

Potential Sea Level Rise Inundation in the Mediterranean: From Susceptibility Assessment to Risk Scenarios for Policy Action

“…The susceptibility analysis provided a classification of the investigated area into four susceptibility classes, as shown in Tables 3 and 4, considering the Class S0 as safe area. To each of the four classes, the potential coastal impacts under future sea level rise were qualitatively estimated based on the evidence provided by Aucelli et al [25,37] and Di Paola et al [26,27]. In particular, Classes S1 and S2 include areas with low-medium susceptibility to SLR but particularly prone to other processes (e.g., storm surges) that can be worsened by SLR; Class S3 (high susceptibility) identifies areas that are prone to be impacted by frequent events of temporary flooding as a consequence of sea storms and permanent morphological changes, such as beach and dune erosion; Class S4 (very high susceptibility) identifies areas prone to be permanently inundated because they are expected to be below the current mean sea level.…”

“…In accordance with several previous studies carried out for the assessment of potential physical impact of future sea levels in different Mediterranean coastal areas (e.g., [25][26][27]37]), the susceptibility of the north-eastern sector of Gozo Island has been evaluated by considering the topographic elevation of the investigated territory. According to the specific topographic setting, the investigated territory is classified in four susceptibility classes, ranging from Class S1 (low susceptibility level), which includes all the areas with a topo-graphic height in the range 1-5 m a.s.l., to Class S4 (very high susceptibility level), which includes all the areas expected to be below the mean sea level (topographic height ≤ 0 m) and therefore considered prone to be permanently submerged by rising sea.…”

“…With regards to the Mediterranean, preliminary studies have been focused on the assessment of the proneness of the alluvial coastal plains to be impacted by future RSLs accounting for future sea level projections coupled with tectonic and glaciohydro-isostatic contributions (e.g., [15][16][17][18][19][20][21]). Several coastal studies have also considered the local contribution of vertical ground movements by assessing displacement rates from satellite data [22][23][24][25][26][27] and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations [28]. These studies highlight the fact that wide areas of the Mediterranean are considered particularly prone to be affected by shoreline retreat and permanent submersion processes by the end of the century as a consequence of RSL increase.…”

“…Other studies have applied a modified version of the index-based method proposed in the frame of the Risc-kit Project [34][35][36] where vulnerability, exposure and hazard indices are coupled to estimate a synthetic coastal risk index that allows identifying "hot-spot" coastal sectors for which deeper modelling investigations are required. By way of example, an index-based procedure developed by considering the Risc-kit approach has been applied in Aucelli et al [37] and Di Paola et al [27] to evaluate the exposure and the social vulnerability of the municipalities within different study areas in southern Italy. With regards to the Maltese Islands, they have been deeply investigated in the frame of a number of research projects, which contributed to collect, analyze, and interpreting a significant amount of geological and geomorphological data, with specific reference to the Gozo Island.…”

Adsorption of CO2 by surface modified coal-based activated carbons: kinetic and thermodynamic analysis

“…Melting snow and glaciers contribute to continuous fl ow of water into the ocean. Since the start of the 20th century, the sea level has risen at a rate of 1.5-2 mm per year 1 . In the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by 0.74 o C, making it about 1.1 o C higher than in the pre-industrial period 2 .…”