IMPORTANCEThere is urgent need to improve the limited prognostic accuracy of clinical instruments to predict psychosis onset in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. As yet, no reliable biological marker has been established to delineate CHR individuals who will develop psychosis from those who will not.OBJECTIVES To investigate abnormalities in a graph-based gyrification connectome in the early stages of psychosis and to test the accuracy of this systems-based approach to predict a transition to psychosis among CHR individuals.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESGyrification-based structural covariance networks (connectomes) were constructed to quantify global integration, segregation, and small-worldness. Group differences in network measures were assessed using functional data analysis across a range of network densities. The extremely randomized trees algorithm with repeated 5-fold cross-validation was used to delineate ARMS-T individuals from ARMS-NT individuals. Permutation tests were conducted to assess the significance of classification performance measures.
RESULTSThe 4 study groups comprised 161 participants with mean (SD) ages ranging from 24.0 (4.7) to 25.9 (5.7) years. Small-worldness was reduced in the ARMS-T and FEP groups and was associated with decreased integration and increased segregation in both groups (Hedges g range, 0.666-1.050). Using the connectome properties as features, a good classification performance was obtained (accuracy, 90.49%; balanced accuracy, 81.34%; positive predictive value, 84.47%; negative predictive value, 92.18%; sensitivity, 66.11%; specificity, 96.58%; and area under the curve, 88.30%).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE These findings suggest that there is poor integration in the coordinated development of cortical folding in patients who develop psychosis. These results further suggest that gyrification-based connectomes might be a promising means to generate systems-based measures from anatomical data to improve individual prediction of a transition to psychosis in CHR individuals.