Scenarios for the Spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Northern Brazil

Abstract

We use a compartmental model to project scenarios for the spread of COVID-19 in the city of Manaus, with different degrees of social distancing and isolation of infectious individuals. In a scenario without any containment measures, our projections point to more than 50,000 (simultaneously) infectious individuals before the end of April 2020. Only in a scenario with strict and extensive social distancing (lockdown), implemented and observed as of March 23 rd , 2020, would this number be less than 50,000 in the…