Scenario analysis of ecosystem service changes and interactions in a mountain-oasis-desert system: a case study in Altay Prefecture, China

Abstract

Scenario analysis of ecosystem services (ES) can provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management. The objective of this study was to reveal the effects of future land use scenarios on ES in a mountain-oasis-desert system (MODS). We first simulated land use changes for the period of 2015–2035 in Altay Prefecture under three different scenarios: business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). We then evaluated water yield (WY), crop production (CP), soil conservation (SC), sand fixation (SF), carbon sequestration (CS), and aesthetic value (AV) and investigated the multiple interactions among ES at the regional and grid scales. The results showed that SC, CS, and AV continually increased, WY continually decreased under the three scenarios. Our study revealed that the multiple interactions among ES were spatially heterogeneous in the MODS and the spatial heterogeneities changed across scenarios. The locations of and causes for the formation of the multiple interactions among ES were identified based on spatial analysis. This information can help decision-makers develop targeted and differentiated ecosystem management strategies. This study can increase the understanding of the multiple interactions among ES. Our findings can provide a reference for studies of other regions with the MODS structure.

Quantitatively Assessing and Attributing Land Use and Land Cover Changes on China’s Loess Plateau

“…The FLUS model is an integrated model that can be used to simulate multi-type future land use scenarios by coupling human activities and natural effects [33][34][35]. It has been successfully applied in regional and global LULCC studies [29,[33][34][35][36]59]. The model first uses the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to obtain the suitability probability of various types of land use and land cover, and then uses the coupling Markov chain and cell automatic (CA) model to improve the suitability of the model.…”

“…Renato et al analyzed the global forest restoration effect by meta-analysis [19,25]. Fu et al compared the indicators of ecosystem services in different scenarios in the Altai region [29]. However, few studies quantify the effect of ecological restoration policies on the background of environmental change.…”

Simple principles for engineering reproducible solutions to environmental management challenges.

“…Identifying anthropogenic needs will help a problem solver create a solution that is appropriate for the challenge, and it can also prevent the emergence of new related challenges or pressures on the system in question. This principle can also include engagement with stakeholders as a mechanism to inform benefits and solutions (Reed 2008;Colvin, Witt, and Lacey 2016).…”

“…At the minimum, exploration of a hope-for-the-best strategy or minimal intervention is critical because of costs. Business-as-usual models can also provide an economic mechanism to value ecosystems services (Fu et al 2018;Karttunen et al 2018), and whilst this is not without debate, this can expand the breadth of stakeholders and potential investors in a solution for a particular challenge. A best and worst case scenario analysis is also likely a frequent need for many environmental challenges because of inertia in the socio-political structures that we use to manage people and resources.…”

“…Studies that inform policy are typically more indirect and synthetic and can take the form of anthropocentric studies that consider ecological or environmental policy. Any of the above tools can serve this role, but some tools that fit most squarely include economic incentivization models (Tilman, Levin, and Watson (2018)), human health impact studies (Chiabai et al 2018), and human well-being monitoring associated with environmental interventions (McKinnon 2015).…”