Saudi Non-oil Exports Before and After COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis.

Abstract

The diversification of the non-oil sector, including its exports, is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. This study investigates Saudi non-oil exports in a novel way. Specifically, it differs from previous studies on this topic owing to its modeling framework. This study’s modeling framework first estimates the non-oil export equation, which allows us to examine the historical impacts of theoretically articulated demand- and supply-side determinants on non-oil exports. This is done using Autometrics, a state-of-the-art algorithm for computer-automated model selection in the general-to-specific modeling strategy framework, with super saturation.

Transitioning Away from an Oil-based Economy through Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

“…The Saudi economy can also be improved through technology transfers to key research centers. A study by Hasanov et al (2021) explored the critical components of the KSA's long-and short-term non-oil exports. The study informed the policy-making process and provided insights into Vision 2030 by developing a state-of-the-art model framework for non-oil exports (Hasanov et al, 2021).…”

“…A study by Hasanov et al (2021) explored the critical components of the KSA's long-and short-term non-oil exports. The study informed the policy-making process and provided insights into Vision 2030 by developing a state-of-the-art model framework for non-oil exports (Hasanov et al, 2021). McKinsey Global Institute (2015 revealed that the KSA's economy, which has substantially grown over the last several years as a result of increasing oil prices, is now in a transition phase.…”